TFM Midday Update 02-04-2026

CORN

Corn futures turned higher at midday following reports of additional agricultural purchases by China. March corn is trading at 4.30.
USDA confirmed the sale of 130,480 tons of U.S. corn for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2025/26 marketing year.
The Mato Grosso city of Rondonópolis received just 4.02 inches of rain in January, well below the 10–11 inch average. January is typically the wettest month in the region, so conditions will need to improve for the crop to get off to a strong start. Mato Grosso accounts for roughly 48% of total safrinha production.
Ethanol production plunged to 281 million gallons in the week ended Friday, January 30, down from 327.5 million gallons the previous week. Production fell within a wide range of expectations, driven by the cold outbreak across the Midwest.

Soybeans shifted higher at midday on news that China is making additional U.S. agricultural purchases, including soybeans. The entire soy complex is trading higher. March soybeans are 3.12 cents higher at 10.97½.
Rallies in the soybean market may be limited as Brazil’s harvest continues to advance and China remains notably absent from the U.S. market.
Soybean oil is finding support following yesterday’s announcement of the 45Z biofuel credit. The American Soybean Association welcomed the move, as it extends tax credits for biofuels produced in the U.S. through December 2029.

All three classes of wheat remain lower at midday as fears of winterkill in the Black Sea and the U.S. fade. Chicago March wheat is lower at 5.26 ½, while Kansas City March wheat is also lower at 5.30 ½.
Ukrainian meteorologists say there has been little crop damage from cold temperatures through January.
The 6–10 day U.S. Plains forecast calls for above-normal temperatures, with week two remaining warm while showing improved precipitation chances.
Hard red spring wheat stocks in warehouses across Minnesota and Wisconsin are up 24.3% year over year as of February 1.

Lauren VandenLangenberg