TFM Midday Update 02-06-2024

CORN

Corn is trading lower near midday with the front months softer relative to the deferred. Yesterday, prices closed unchanged as corn trades in a sideways pattern near its lows.
Argentina’s weather has been hot and dry recently, which may put a dent in their overall corn production, but rains are forecast to begin in the country later this week.
Thursday’s WASDE report is expected to see Brazilian corn production lowered from the USDA’s last estimate of 127 mmt to an average trade guess of 124.3 mmt. Some private estimates are as low as 115 mmt.
While yesterday’s export inspections report was poor, export demand has been supported by purchases from Mexico, and corn exports are on a decent pace for the year.

Soybeans are trading higher today after a higher day of trade yesterday, thanks to strong export inspections. Soybean meal has recovered from earlier this morning and is now near unchanged, while soybean oil is higher.
The dryness in Argentina may hurt their soybean crop along with corn, but in Brazil, weather has been much more favorable with scattered showers throughout most of the country.
Analysts expect the USDA to lower Brazilian soybean production on Thursday from 157 mmt to an average guess of around 153 mmt. Argentinian production is up in the air with the recent dry spell.
For 23/24, Brazil’s soybean sales are estimated at 31.9% of its total production. That would be up from 29.1% the previous year.

All three wheat classes are now trading higher today after lower prices this morning. The US dollar is also lower this morning, and the move lower would typically be supportive to wheat.
Russia’s consultancy, IKAR, has reported that Russian FOB values have fallen to as low as $228 per metric ton from as high as $235/mt a week ago on higher production estimates.
Ukraine is said to have targeted an oil refinery deep within Russian territory, increasing tension in the Black Sea. Despite the tensions, large volumes of wheat continue to be exported out of that part of the world.
In Texas, the winter wheat crop ratings have improved to 46% good to excellent, which is up 2% from the previous week. Crops rated poor to very poor fell to 20% from 26% last week.

Amanda Brill