TFM Midday Update 02-07-2024

CORN

Corn is trading lower today, but has come off its earlier morning lows significantly. March corn made a new low this morning at 432 ¾.
Tomorrow, the USDA will release its WASDE report and is expected to lower Brazilian corn production by 3 mmt to 124.3 mmt, and Argentinian production is expected to be unchanged.
Brazil is now over 20% planted with their safrinha corn crop, which is about double their pace from last year. Rainy conditions have been favorable.
Argentina’s weather has been hot and dry recently, which may put a dent in their overall corn production, but rains are forecast to begin in the country later this week.

Soybeans are trading lower today along with corn, but have also come significantly off their earlier morning lows, which saw the March contract take out Monday’s low.
Soybean meal is trading lower again today, while soybean oil is higher. Crush margins have narrowed, but remain profitable and have generated good domestic demand.
For tomorrow’s WASDE report, analysts are expecting Brazilian production to be lowered from the previous guess of 157 mmt to 153 mmt. Most analysts expect the true number to be between 145 and 150 mmt.
For 23/24, Brazil’s soybean sales are estimated at 31.9% of its total production. That would be up from 29.1% the previous year.

All three wheat classes are trading higher today despite lower corn and soybeans, but wheat remains in a narrow trend, unable to rally higher with Russian values so inexpensive.
The export duty for Russian wheat has been increased to 4.8% to 3,804.6 rubles per tonne.
In Texas, the winter wheat crop ratings have improved to 46% good to excellent, which is up 2% from the previous week. Crops rated poor to very poor fell to 20% from 26% last week.
Tomorrow, Statistics Canada will release the December 31 stocks and all-wheat, which is estimated to be 20.7 mmt, which would compare to 22.3 mmt last year.

Amanda Brill