TFM Midday Update 02-08-2024

CORN

Corn is trading lower ahead of the WASDE report despite another week of solid export sales, a flash sale reported this morning, and an expected reduction in Brazilian production.
The USDA reported an increase of 48.0 mb of corn export sales for 23/24, which was up 17% from the previous week, but down 6% from the prior 4-week average.
Export shipments last week of 40.8 mb were below the 44.6 mb needed each week to achieve the USDA’s export estimates. Primary Destinations were to Mexico, Colombia, and Japan.
This morning, private exporters reported sales of 200,000 metric tons of corn for delivery to Colombia for the 23/24 marketing year.

Soybeans are trading higher near midday following a bullish CONAB report, which saw Brazilian soybean production below the 150 mmt mark. Both soybean meal and oil are trading higher as well.
The USDA reported another poor week of soybean export sales today, with sales below the lowest range of estimates at 12.5 mb for 23/24. This was down 25% from the prior 4-week average.
Export shipments of 60.8 mb last week were well above the 22.7 mb needed each week to meet the USDA’s estimates, and primary destinations were to China, the Netherlands, and Mexico.
CONAB is estimating Brazilian soybean production lower at 149.40 mmt, which is well below the USDA’s last guess of 157 mmt. This would be down 3.4% from last year.

All three wheat classes are trading significantly lower this morning and are pulling corn lower as well. Wheat has remained in a tight trading range on little fresh news.
The USDA reported an increase of 13.9 mb of wheat export sales for 23/24 and an increase of 0.3 mb for 24/25. This was within expectations, up 17% from the previous week, but down 6% from the prior 4-week average.
Last week’s export shipments of wheat were 11.6 mb and were below the 17.2 mb needed each week to meet the USDA’s estimates. Primary destinations were to Indonesia, Canada, and Nigeria.
Today’s WASDE report should hold few surprises for wheat as US and world ending stocks are not expected to change, but US exports could increase slightly.

Amanda Brill