TFM Midday Update 02-09-2022


  • Mar corn up 10 @ 6.42
  • The drying trend is forecast to continue in Argentina and southern Brazil long term
  • Ukraine is the origin of choice for corn for China – the situation with Russia could affect that
  • Ethanol production has been running 9% higher than last year at this time
  • Rain delays in northern Brazil are delaying safrinha corn planting
  • May corn on China’s Dalian exchange is around the equivalent of $11.09 per bushel


  • Mar soybeans up 17 @ 15.86
  • USDA confirmed a sale of 240,000 mt of US soybeans for delivery to China during the 22/23 marketing year
  • Export inspections and sales remain 24% below last year
  • The American weather model forecasts some rains across parts of Argentina and Paraguay soon, but the European model is dry
  • Soybean oil is following palm oil higher

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  • Mar wheat up 7 @ 7.86, Mar KC up 10 @ 8.11, Mar MNPLS up 12 @ 9.52
  • Stats Canada’s December wheat stocks came in 1.7 mmt below expectations at 15.564 mmt – helping to rally US futures yesterday
  • US wheat markets are up at midday, but Paris milling futures are mixed
  • North African countries are experiencing extreme drought
  • Diplomatic efforts are still trying to diffuse the Russia situation


  • Apr LC up 1.500 @ 147.675 & Mar FC up 1.750 @ 168.625
  • Traders anticipate stronger cash this week, supporting futures
  • Boxed beef continues to show weakness
  • Packers may have to bid up to obtain cattle to keep up with slaughter pace
  • Choice cuts down 1.50 and select down 1.20
  • Cattle slaughter projected at 121K
  • CME Feeder Cattle Index for 2/8: up 1.29 @ 161.43


  • Apr hogs up 0.550 @ 104.350 & Apr pork cutout unchanged @ 111.150
  • Supplies could be affected by truckers in Canada blocking supply routes
  • Futures continue to show strength (due to anticipation of tightening supply)
  • Futures remain overbought and due for a correction
  • National Direct Afternoon report increased 7.99
  • Hog slaughter projected at 475K
  • CME Lean Hog Index for 2/9: up 0.75 @ 86.62


Brandon Doherty

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