TFM Midday Update 02-13-2023


  • Mar corn up 4 @ 6.84
  • Rains in Argentina were better than expected with some areas receiving an inch or more
  • Brazil also received decent rains
  • A fourth aerial object was shot down by the US on Sunday, but it is currently unknown if it was a reconnaissance craft or of Chinese origin
  • Ag Rural said Brazil corn planting is 25% complete vs 42% last year
  • Ukraine has shipped 16.7 mmt of corn for 22/23 so far
  • March corn on China’s Dalian exchange is around the equivalent of $10.38 per bushel


  • Mar soybeans up 6 @ 15.48
  • Brazil soybean prices are still below the US
  • On Friday, March soybean meal posted the highest close on record
  • South American soybean meal offers are far below the US but the basis is strong in the US
  • According to Ag Rural, Brazil’s soybean harvest is 17% complete with 28 mmt said to be already collected
  • Longer term, there is still concern about US export demand
  • Soybeans on China’s Dalian exchange are around the equivalent of $19.24 per bushel


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  • Mar Chi wheat up 8 @ 7.94, Mar KC up 3 @ 9.12, & Mar MNPLS up 1 @ 9.31
  • Russian missiles were found not to have violated NATO airspace on Friday
  • Concern around the escalation of the Russian offensive in Ukraine, but Ukraine is said to be holding their ground and ships are still being loaded with grain for export
  • Parts of the US southern Plains will see precipitation over the next 24 hours
  • Russian wheat remains at a discount to US wheat
  • The Philippines are tendering for 110,000 mt of feed wheat, with Australia expected as the origin


  • Apr LC up 0.500 @ 164.450 & Mar FC down 0.075 @ 186.325
  • Trade in the south was $1-2 higher and $4 higher on average in the north
  • Feedlots may hold out for higher cash again this week
  • Slaughter pace continues to run strong and demand is steady
  • Choice cuts up 0.37 and select up 0.28
  • Cattle slaughter projected at 122K
  • CME Feeder Cattle Index for 2/10: up 0.56 @ 183.09


  • Apr hogs up 1.150 @ 84.475 & Apr pork cutout up 2.075 @ 92.075
  • February hog futures expire tomorrow (Feb 14), then April will become the front month
  • Futures may have found a bottom, showing strength today
  • Cash is anticipated to be higher in the second quarter, with the April contract at a significant premium to February
  • National Direct Afternoon report declined 0.28
  • Hog slaughter projected at 485K
  • CME Lean Hog Index for 2/13: up 0.21 @ 74.01


Brandon Doherty

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