TFM Midday Update 02-13-2024


  • Ag Rural raised their estimate of Brazil’s safrinha corn crop by 5 mmt to 91.2 mmt due to favorable planting conditions and less of a drop in planted acreage than previously estimated.
  • South American weather looks mostly favorable, with timely rains expected later this week for southern growing regions of Brazil.
  • Ethanol production is up 4% compared to a year ago; tomorrow’s data from the EIA is likely to show production over 1 million barrels per day.
  • This morning the Labor Department said that consumer prices are up 3.1% versus last year which was higher than expected. This is pressuring the equity markets, which may offer some spillover pressure to commodities.


  • Weekly inspections data showed 29.9 mb of soybeans inspected for shipment to China. This is some friendly news despite the concerns surrounding their economy.
  • In addition to the USDA ag outlook forum later this week, CONAB on Thursday will also release crush data from last month.
  • According to Ag Rural, Brazil’s soybean crop is 23% harvested versus 17% at this time last year. That may indicate that yields are lower than normal, which would support the idea that many private estimates are below both the official CONAB and USDA numbers.


  • Texas reported their winter wheat conditions yesterday. The crop rating declined by 4% to 42% good to excellent. Additionally, 19% of the crop is headed.
  • Jordan is tendering for 120,000 mt of wheat, while Japan is also tendering for 115,000 mt.
  • Wheat prices in both France and Australia are near two-year lows, creating a bearish tone from a global perspective.
  • The US Dollar Index is up sharply this morning as a result of the inflation data. This is putting pressure on all three US wheat classes.


Brandon Doherty

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