TFM Midday Update 02-14-2024


  • Grain markets are lower at midday, with wheat leading the way down. Part of the weakness stems from anticipation of bearish numbers during this week’s Outlook Forum. Despite these not being official estimates, the trade may react to what the USDA says anyway.
  • The average trade guess for corn carryout at the USDA Ag Outlook Forum is 2.49 bb. In addition, corn yield is expected to be increased by five to six bushels above last year’s 177.3 bpa. This may be somewhat offset by lower acres.
  • Central Brazil looks to be dry for the next couple days, but widespread rains are expected to return to both the central and northern areas for the remainder of the month. Southern regions of Brazil, as well as Argentina, look to remain on the drier side.


  • The average trade guess for soybean carryout at the USDA Ag Outlook Forum is 420 mb. In addition, both acreage and yield are expected to rise, leading to potential production of over 4.4 bb.
  • Malaysia reported the lowest palm oil production for nine months, which had palm oil up 1.1%. So far, soybean oil is not showing much reaction and is trading in negative territory at the time of this writing.
  • March soybeans in Paranagua, Brazil are around the equivalent of $11.06 FOB this morning; this compares to $12.34 in New Orleans and these lower prices in South America are a bearish factor for the market.


  • The average trade guess for wheat carryout at the USDA Ag Outlook Forum is 720 mb.
  • According to APK-Inform, Ukraine’s grain exports have reached 25.2 mmt as of February 9. With 80 mmt of grain harvested in 2023, they are reportedly on track to export their entire 50 mmt surplus before the end of the season in June. This is despite Russian attacks and infrastructure damage.
  • The International Grains Council said this morning that weekly wheat prices dropped in Argentina, Canada, Europe, Australia, Russia, and Ukraine – this may explain some of this session’s weakness in wheat.


Brandon Doherty

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