TFM Midday Update 02-15-2023

CORN

Mar corn down 4 @ 6.78
Talk of higher global interest rates and lower currencies in importing countries could slow their demand
Assuming normal weather in 2023, corn trend yield could be up 5% and bring the national average to around 185 bu per acre
The last corn crop rating for Argentina was 20% good to excellent
March corn on China’s Dalian exchange is around the equivalent of $10.46 per bushel

Mar soybeans down 19 @ 15.18
Brazil soybean harvest pace is slower than last year, but their export prices are $1 below the US Gulf
The March soybean meal contract has a large premium over the May, indicating good demand
Based on March futures, the value of crushed soybeans is $3.38 per bushel higher than that of uncrushed
The las soybean crop rating for Argentina was 13% good to excellent
March soybeans on China’s Dalian exchange are around the equivalent of $19.23 per bushel

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Mar Chi wheat down 17 @ 7.69, Mar KC down 15 @ 8.91, & Mar MNPLS down 7 @ 9.25
The southwestern Plains have another chance for precipitation in the 6-10 day forecast, but drought remains a concern overall
Larger crops in Russia, Australia, and Canada may pressure the US wheat market
The International Grains Council is estimating world wheat production at 796 mmt (vs the USDA at 784 mmt)
Some news reports this morning suggest that Russia may be blocking the operation of the Black Sea grain export corridor

Apr LC down 0.150 @ 164.525 & Mar FC up 0.700 @ 187.350
Feb live cattle made another new contract high – that contract is nearing expiration on 2/28
The winter storm moving across much of the US may hinder movement of livestock
Packers already have some cattle purchased ahead and may not bid higher
Boxed beef has been trending higher
Choice cuts up 2.11 and select up 2.57
Cattle slaughter projected at 126K
CME Feeder Cattle Index for 2/14: down 0.27 @ 183.06

Brandon Doherty