TFM Midday Update 02-15-2023


  • Mar corn down 4 @ 6.78
  • Talk of higher global interest rates and lower currencies in importing countries could slow their demand
  • Assuming normal weather in 2023, corn trend yield could be up 5% and bring the national average to around 185 bu per acre
  • The last corn crop rating for Argentina was 20% good to excellent
  • March corn on China’s Dalian exchange is around the equivalent of $10.46 per bushel


  • Mar soybeans down 19 @ 15.18
  • Brazil soybean harvest pace is slower than last year, but their export prices are $1 below the US Gulf
  • The March soybean meal contract has a large premium over the May, indicating good demand
  • Based on March futures, the value of crushed soybeans is $3.38 per bushel higher than that of uncrushed
  • The las soybean crop rating for Argentina was 13% good to excellent
  • March soybeans on China’s Dalian exchange are around the equivalent of $19.23 per bushel


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  • Mar Chi wheat down 17 @ 7.69, Mar KC down 15 @ 8.91, & Mar MNPLS down 7 @ 9.25
  • The southwestern Plains have another chance for precipitation in the 6-10 day forecast, but drought remains a concern overall
  • Larger crops in Russia, Australia, and Canada may pressure the US wheat market
  • The International Grains Council is estimating world wheat production at 796 mmt (vs the USDA at 784 mmt)
  • Some news reports this morning suggest that Russia may be blocking the operation of the Black Sea grain export corridor


  • Apr LC down 0.150 @ 164.525 Mar FC up 0.700 @ 187.350
  • Feb live cattle made another new contract high – that contract is nearing expiration on 2/28
  • The winter storm moving across much of the US may hinder movement of livestock
  • Packers already have some cattle purchased ahead and may not bid higher
  • Boxed beef has been trending higher
  • Choice cuts up 2.11 and select up 2.57
  • Cattle slaughter projected at 126K
  • CME Feeder Cattle Index for 2/14: down 0.27 @ 183.06


  • Apr hogs down 1.275 @ 85.975 & Apr pork cutout down 1.225 @ 92.350
  • April is now the front month futures contract
  • Cash expected to be higher today
  • Slaughter pace may be slowing a bit which could back up hogs in the market
  • National Direct Afternoon report gained 0.79
  • Hog slaughter projected at 486K
  • CME Lean Hog Index for 2/15: up 0.54 @ 75.18


Brandon Doherty

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