TFM Midday Update 02-15-2024

The CME and Total Farm Marketing offices will be closed Monday, February 19, in observance of Presidents Day

CORN

Corn is trading slightly lower today following this morning’s USDA Outlook Forum numbers and export sales that were both within expectations.
For the week ending February 8, the USDA reported an increase of 51.5 mb of corn export sales for 23/24 and an increase of 0.1 mb for 24/25. This was towards the higher end of expectations and exports are currently up 30% on the year.
Corn export shipments of 35.6 mb were below the 45.0 mb needed each week to meet the USDA’s estimates. Primary destinations were to Mexico, Japan, and Colombia.
The USDA’s outlook numbers showed planted corn acres falling to 91 million acres with a trendline yield of 181 bpa used to project an ending stocks number of 2.532 bb.

Soybeans are trading lower today in choppy back and forth trade following the USDA’s outlook numbers that projected an increase in planted soybean acres.
For the week ending February 8, the USDA reported an increase of 13.0 mb for 23/24 and an increase of 0.9 mb for 24/25. Export sales were on the lower end of expectations and sales are now 19% behind a year ago.
Last week’s export shipments of 53.4 mb were well above the 20.3 mb needed each week to achieve the USDA’s estimates. Primary destinations were to China, Japan, and Spain.
The USDA’s outlook numbers for soybeans show an increase in planted acres to 87.5 million acres from 83.6 ma last year with their trendline yield projecting ending stocks at 435 mb.

Wheat is trading mixed at midday with Chicago and KC lower but Minneapolis wheat trading higher. Today’s outlook numbers were within expectations, but export sales were poor.
For the week ending February 8, the USDA reported an increase of 12.8 mb of wheat export sales for 23/24 and an increase of 1.8 mb for 24/25. This was towards the lower range of estimates and puts total sales 7% above a year ago.
Last week’s export shipments of 14.9 mb were below the 17.5 mb needed each week to meet the USDA’s estimates. Primary destinations were to Mexico, Japan, and South Korea.
In France, 23/24 soft wheat stocks were seen 37% higher than the previous year at 3.5 mmt which was up from a previous estimate of 3.44 mmt.

Amanda Brill