TFM Midday Update 02-16-2023

The CME and Total Farm Marketing offices will be closed Monday, February 20, 2023 in observance of Presidents Day


  • Mar corn down 2 @ 6.74
  • USDA reported an increase of 40.3 mb of corn export sales for 22/23 and an increase of 3.9 mb for 23/24
  • Argentina’s forecast for next week is mostly dry
  • Pace of ethanol production is slightly above last year at this time
  • US / China relations remain uncertain, with China having sanctions on two US defense companies for sending military aid to Taiwan
  • Argentina’s Buenos Aires Grain Exchange will release new crop ratings today


  • Mar soybeans up 2 @ 15.28
  • USDA reported an increase of 18.8 mb of soybean export sales for 22/23 and an increase of 9.5 mb for 23/24
  • US Energy Department said that crude oil supplies increased 16.3 million barrels last week – at 471.4 million barrels, that is the highest level in 6 years
  • Yesterday’s NOPA crush was 179 mb and was below expectations
  • Next week is the USDA’s outlook conference and the market will get unofficial supply and demand numbers


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  • Mar Chi wheat down 6 @ 7.63Mar KC up 1 @ 8.96, & Mar MNPLS up 4 @ 9.29
  • USDA reported an increase of 7.7 mb of wheat export sales for 22/23 and an increase of 0.8 mb for 23/24
  • The US Dollar Index is making 6 week highs which may offer some resistance to the wheat market
  • There continues to be talk that Russia will launch a new offensive in Ukraine, with most of their army now in Ukraine and the 1 year anniversary of the invasion coming up
  • There are rumors that Russia may not extend the Black Sea export corridor beyond the March 19th deadline (unless sanctions against them are lifted)


  • Apr LC down 0.800 @ 163.800 & Mar FC down 0.825 @ 186.500
  • Beef net export sales for 2023 at 28,100 mt
  • Some are anticipating cash may be no better than steady with last week, though feedlots may hold out for higher cash anyway
  • Boxed beef has been performing better
  • Consumer demand is good
  • Choice cuts up 3.66 and select up 2.83
  • Cattle slaughter projected at 124K
  • CME Feeder Cattle Index for 2/15: up 0.01 @ 183.07


  • Apr hogs down 0.800 @ 85.700 & Apr pork cutout down 0.800 @ 92.100
  • Pork net export sales for 2023 at 45,000 mt
  • April futures are at roughly a ten dollar premium to the index
  • Hog slaughter has been running somewhat lighter with packers trying to improve margins
  • Cutouts have not found solid support which may limit the upside in futures
  • National Direct Afternoon report increased 1.17
  • Hog slaughter projected at 485K
  • CME Lean Hog Index for 2/16: up 0.44 @ 75.62


Brandon Doherty

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