TFM Midday Update 02-16-2023

The CME and Total Farm Marketing offices will be closed Monday, February 20, 2023 in observance of Presidents Day

CORN

Mar corn down 2 @ 6.74
USDA reported an increase of 40.3 mb of corn export sales for 22/23 and an increase of 3.9 mb for 23/24
Argentina’s forecast for next week is mostly dry
Pace of ethanol production is slightly above last year at this time
US / China relations remain uncertain, with China having sanctions on two US defense companies for sending military aid to Taiwan
Argentina’s Buenos Aires Grain Exchange will release new crop ratings today

Mar soybeans up 2 @ 15.28
USDA reported an increase of 18.8 mb of soybean export sales for 22/23 and an increase of 9.5 mb for 23/24
US Energy Department said that crude oil supplies increased 16.3 million barrels last week – at 471.4 million barrels, that is the highest level in 6 years
Yesterday’s NOPA crush was 179 mb and was below expectations
Next week is the USDA’s outlook conference and the market will get unofficial supply and demand numbers

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Mar Chi wheat down 6 @ 7.63, Mar KC up 1 @ 8.96, & Mar MNPLS up 4 @ 9.29
USDA reported an increase of 7.7 mb of wheat export sales for 22/23 and an increase of 0.8 mb for 23/24
The US Dollar Index is making 6 week highs which may offer some resistance to the wheat market
There continues to be talk that Russia will launch a new offensive in Ukraine, with most of their army now in Ukraine and the 1 year anniversary of the invasion coming up
There are rumors that Russia may not extend the Black Sea export corridor beyond the March 19^th deadline (unless sanctions against them are lifted)

Apr LC down 0.800 @ 163.800 & Mar FC down 0.825 @ 186.500
Beef net export sales for 2023 at 28,100 mt
Some are anticipating cash may be no better than steady with last week, though feedlots may hold out for higher cash anyway
Boxed beef has been performing better
Consumer demand is good
Choice cuts up 3.66 and select up 2.83
Cattle slaughter projected at 124K
CME Feeder Cattle Index for 2/15: up 0.01 @ 183.07

Apr hogs down 0.800 @ 85.700 & Apr pork cutout down 0.800 @ 92.100
Pork net export sales for 2023 at 45,000 mt
April futures are at roughly a ten dollar premium to the index
Hog slaughter has been running somewhat lighter with packers trying to improve margins
Cutouts have not found solid support which may limit the upside in futures
National Direct Afternoon report increased 1.17
Hog slaughter projected at 485K
CME Lean Hog Index for 2/16: up 0.44 @ 75.62

Brandon Doherty