TFM Midday Update 02-19-2026

CORN

Corn futures are trading lower at midday, pressured by ongoing overnight rainfall in Argentina. March corn is down 2¼ cents at 4.24¼.
Analysts are calling for a potential record Argentine corn crop of 58–62 MMT as widespread rainfall over the past two weeks has improved soil moisture and crop conditions. Argentine corn is currently being offered at roughly a 35-cent per bushel discount to U.S. supplies.
This morning’s Outlook Forum estimates are viewed as supportive for corn prices, with 2026/27 planted acreage projected at 94 million acres—1 million below the average trade estimate and 4.8 million below 2025/26 levels. Yield is pegged at 183 bpa, down from 186.5 bpa last season. As a result, total production is projected at 15.755 billion bushels, compared with 17.021 billion bushels in the prior season.
Indonesia and the U.S. are expected to finalize their trade agreement today, which includes provisions for up to 1.6 million metric tons of U.S. corn purchases.

Soybean futures are mixed to higher at midday, encountering slight resistance during the session. March soybeans are up 2¼ cents at 11.35¾.
This morning’s Outlook Forum projects 2026/27 soybean planted acreage at 85 million acres, down 3.8 million from the prior season. Yield is forecast at 53 bpa, unchanged year over year. Production is estimated at 4.45 billion bushels, up from 4.262 billion bushels last season.
The U.S. and Indonesia are expected to sign their trade agreement today, which will include purchases of approximately 1 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans.
Soybean oil and meal markets are showing little reaction this morning to news that Argentina’s maritime workers will begin a 48-hour strike today, coinciding with a 24-hour strike by the country’s oilseed workers’ union. The labor actions are expected to severely restrict export loadings through the end of the week.

Wheat futures continue to trade higher at midday across all three classes, supported by ongoing global developments. March Chicago wheat is up 12¼ cents at 5.59½, while March Kansas City wheat is up 12 cents at 5.63.
Traders remain focused on reports of wind damage to crops across the U.S. Plains, an ongoing cold snap in Ukraine, and rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
This morning’s Outlook Forum projected 2026 U.S. wheat planted acreage at 45 million acres, down from 45.3 million in 2025 but slightly above pre-report estimates of 44.7 million. Total production is forecast at 1.860 billion bushels, compared with 1.985 billion bushels in the prior season.
LSEG left its production estimates unchanged for India, the UK/EU, Russia, the U.S., Ukraine, and China.

Lauren VandenLangenberg