TFM Midday Update 02-21-2023


  • Mar corn up 1 @ 6.78
  • Corn is slightly higher after backing off from earlier highs as the Argentinian drought stoked concerns on delayed corn planting
  • In China, corn on the Dalian Exchange moved higher today ending at the equivalent of $10.62 a bushel which is near their highest level in over two months and signals the need for more corn
  • Between Argentina’s dryness and Brazil’s likely delayed corn planting, if the US has any issues during planting and growing season, corn has the potential to move higher
  • In addition to drought, Argentina was hit with early frost over the weekend contributing to their crop troubles


  • Mar soybeans up 12 @ 15.40
  • Soybeans are higher as Brazilian harvest trails behind last year’s pace and early frost over the weekend hit Argentinian crops
  • Local crop estimates in Argentina are now running 3.0 mmt to 7.0 mmt below the USDA’s estimate of 41.0 mmt due to drought and now this frost
  • According to Ag Rural, Brazilian bean harvest is 25% complete which is down from the average of 33% this time of year while Mato Grosso is ahead at around 60% complete
  • Ag Rural is estimating the Brazilian crop slightly lower at 150.9 mmt which is slightly below the USDA’s estimate of 153.0 mmt, but Mato Grosso’s larger yields may make up for the southern part of the country


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  • Mar Chi wheat down 9 @ 7.56Mar KC up 2 @ 9.09, & Mar MNPLS down 1 @ 9.30
  • Chicago wheat is lower while KC is slightly higher in mixed trade which comes after tensions escalate between Ukraine, Russia, and the US
  • Vladimir Putin has now said that Russia is suspending its treaty that halts nuclear weapon expansion, essentially saying that they would resume nuclear weapons tests if the US does too
  • The western Plains is expected to be cold again this week which could reach as far as the Texas Panhandle and could keep crops struggling
  • Leading up to the one-year anniversary of the Ukraine war, Russia has continued their attacks and insinuated things would ramp up, making the thought of raising crops very bleak for farmers


  • Apr LC up 0.25 @ 164.400 & Mar FC up 0.350 @ 186.850
  • Both live and feeder cattle are higher following a week of higher cash trade and higher boxed beef while corn continues to stay rangebound
  • Feedlots held out successfully again last week and higher cash was achieved with the South seeing 2 dollars better and Northern trade 2 to 3 dollars better
  • The Cattle on Feed report will be released on Friday which may add to bullish momentum
  • Choice cuts up 1.49 and select up 3.25
  • Cattle slaughter projected at 126K
  • CME Feeder Cattle Index for 2/17: down 0.70 @ 183.03


  • Apr hogs up 3.375 @ 88.675Apr pork cutout up 2.725 @ 94.525
  • Hogs are being bull spread with nearby contracts significantly higher after cash rose, but cutouts slipped by 0.97
  • Markets were closed on Monday but cutouts were open and moved higher by 1.48 with bellies leading the way which added to bullish sentiment this morning
  • Hog slaughter remains brisk, but the pork is starting to move better with demand picking up
  • National Direct Afternoon report declined 0.33
  • Hog slaughter projected at 477K
  • CME Lean Hog Index for 2/21: up 0.56 @ 76.41


Amanda Brill

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