TFM Midday Update 02-22-2023

CORN

Mar corn down 4 @ 6.76
Corn is feeling some pressure this morning as showers have fallen in central Argentina and although unlikely to make much difference, shows that markets are trading weather
Corn has been extremely rangebound since mid-January and will need some fresh news to move one way or the other
The US is getting in a better position for export sales as Brazilian premiums begin to rise, but the US still has a long way to go at 40% below last year
Brazil’s safrinha corn crop is reportedly 40% planted, down 10% from last year’s pace as drought delays their bean harvest

Mar soybeans down 6 @ 15.43
Soybeans are lower today being pulled down by meal while bean oil manages to stay afloat despite a drop in crude oil
Prices were higher yesterday as the early frost that hit Argentina likely damaged the crop further and may result in a crop that is 7 mmt smaller than the USDA’s expectations
About 25% of Brazil’s crop is harvested which is about 1.47 bb, but for now US demand has been good while Brazil has slow goings transporting the beans
Bean meal has been on fire as Argentina who exports the most meal will likely have to import beans from Brazil to meet crush expectations thanks to a poor crop

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Mar Chi wheat down 13 @ 7.38, Mar KC down 21 @ 8.83, & Mar MNPLS down 10 @ 9.15
Wheat is down hardest of the grain complex today as funds get back into their short positions and US exports lag
Russia continues to offer wheat for significantly less than the US, but with the ongoing war, their wheat supplies are due to slow down eventually which could support prices in the long run
Ukraine is seeking a one-year extension of the Black Sea grain deal with more ports allowed
The western Plains is expected to be cold again this week which could reach as far as the Texas Panhandle and could keep crops struggling

Apr LC up 0.25 @ 165.100 & Mar FC up 0.750 @ 187.625
Both live and feeder cattle are higher today after nice gains in the cutout and lower corn which is helping out feeders
Brazil is investigating a possible case of atypical mad cow disease which has supported live cattle and could affect their beef exports if it is wide spread
Cash is expected to be higher again this week with boxed beef gaining and the packers not being well bought ahead
Choice cuts up 4.31 and select up 2.79
Cattle slaughter projected at 127K
CME Feeder Cattle Index for 2/21: down 0.04 @ 182.59

Apr hogs down 2.450 @ 86.650 & Apr pork cutout down 2.000 @ 92.750
Hogs are trading lower with the front month leading the way down as it works to converge with the cash index which is at around an 8-dollar discount
Cash moved slightly higher while the cutout lost its gains from yesterday and lost 4.71 which is pressuring futures today
National Direct Afternoon report rose 0.15
Hog slaughter projected at 443K
CME Lean Hog Index for 2/22: up 0.35 @ 76.76

Amanda Brill