TFM Midday Update 02-23-2021

CORN

  • May corn up 4 @ 5.54 & Dec up 2 @ 4.71
  • Net drying will continue across most of Argentina through next Monday
  • Tightening stocks outlook & strong China demand push prices upward
  • No flash sales from China yet from USDA this week
  • Thursday’s exports will be important to see if China is going to continue stock piling

SOYBEANS

  • May up 33 @ 14.20 & Nov up 15 @ 12.26
  • Most of Brazil will continue to be favorable; though some areas will still too wet
  • US stockpiles are projected to be record-tight later in 2021
  • Brazil soybean harvest to 15% versus 31% last year
  • Brazil harvest is the slowest for mid-Feb in the last 10 years
  • Futures continue to search for a price that will stifle demand

WHEAT

  • May down 4 @ 6.65, May KC down 4 @ 6.46, May MNPLS down 3 @ 6.47
    • Condition ratings for winter wheat in KS declined from 43% to 40% good/excellent during Feb
    • Winter wheat ratings also decline in OK, but improved in SD & CO
    • Ukraine have sharply increased milling wheat imports
    • Some chance of much needed rain in southern plains
    • Russian exports from March-June expected to limited due to export taxes
    • Enough supply uncertainty & food security concerns keep prices supported

CATTLE

  • April LC down 1.77 @ 121.27 & March FC down .82 @138.50
  • Uncertainty in LC markets & corn rallying putting pressure on cattle complex
  • Beef cutouts are expected to be higher with light/moderate box movement
  • Today’s slaughter est. at 118K head
  • Asking prices in the south around 116 & FC index for 2/19, up 3.01 @ 141.12
  • Open interest lost 1055 for April futures & lost 875 for March FC

HOGS

  • April up .80 @ 85.92 & April Pork Cutout up 1.02 @ 92.50
  • With packing plants able to run at full bore this week, futures fueled with demand
  • Futures gaining support from higher cutouts & higher cash
  • Hog slaughter estimated at 495K head
  • Cash lean index 77.43 up .23 for 2/18
  • O/I: Lost 1354 positions for April hogs & pork cutout futures lost 19 positions

Author

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Amberlee Bratcher

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