CORN
- May corn up 4 @ 5.54 & Dec up 2 @ 4.71
- Net drying will continue across most of Argentina through next Monday
- Tightening stocks outlook & strong China demand push prices upward
- No flash sales from China yet from USDA this week
- Thursday’s exports will be important to see if China is going to continue stock piling
SOYBEANS
- May up 33 @ 14.20 & Nov up 15 @ 12.26
- Most of Brazil will continue to be favorable; though some areas will still too wet
- US stockpiles are projected to be record-tight later in 2021
- Brazil soybean harvest to 15% versus 31% last year
- Brazil harvest is the slowest for mid-Feb in the last 10 years
- Futures continue to search for a price that will stifle demand
WHEAT
- May down 4 @ 6.65, May KC down 4 @ 6.46, May MNPLS down 3 @ 6.47
- Condition ratings for winter wheat in KS declined from 43% to 40% good/excellent during Feb
- Winter wheat ratings also decline in OK, but improved in SD & CO
- Ukraine have sharply increased milling wheat imports
- Some chance of much needed rain in southern plains
- Russian exports from March-June expected to limited due to export taxes
- Enough supply uncertainty & food security concerns keep prices supported
CATTLE
- April LC down 1.77 @ 121.27 & March FC down .82 @138.50
- Uncertainty in LC markets & corn rallying putting pressure on cattle complex
- Beef cutouts are expected to be higher with light/moderate box movement
- Today’s slaughter est. at 118K head
- Asking prices in the south around 116 & FC index for 2/19, up 3.01 @ 141.12
- Open interest lost 1055 for April futures & lost 875 for March FC
HOGS
- April up .80 @ 85.92 & April Pork Cutout up 1.02 @ 92.50
- With packing plants able to run at full bore this week, futures fueled with demand
- Futures gaining support from higher cutouts & higher cash
- Hog slaughter estimated at 495K head
- Cash lean index 77.43 up .23 for 2/18
- O/I: Lost 1354 positions for April hogs & pork cutout futures lost 19 positions