TFM Midday Update 02-23-2023

CORN

Mar corn down 5 @ 6.69
Corn is trading lower after the USDA’s outlook forum released estimated production numbers for corn, beans, and wheat
In corn, they have estimated 91 million planted acres compared to 88.6 last year and a carryout increasing to 1887 bb which was higher than expected, from 1267 bb last year
US corn export demand has not picked up in the way traders had hoped with Brazil essentially out of corn, and Ukraine and Russia apparently picking up the business with cheaper offerings
Today last week’s petroleum status report will be released which will show ethanol production and inventory, but ethanol producers are seeing break-even margins with some below that

Mar soybeans down 5 @ 15.35
Soybeans are trading lower with the bulk of losses in the November contract as Brazil’s forecast dries up a bit allowing harvest to pick up pace
The outlook forum estimated 87.5 million acres of soybeans which is unchanged from last year, with estimated yields rising to 52 bpa from 49.5 bpa the prior year
The soybean carryout has been estimated to rise to 290 from 225 the previous year as production is estimated to increase
Both bean meal and bean oil are trading lower today despite a move higher in crude by over a dollar a barrel

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Mar Chi wheat up 2 @ 7.39, Mar KC down 12 @ 8.64, & Mar MNPLS up 3 @ 9.15
Chicago wheat is trading slightly higher while KC moves sharply lower again after the outlook forum estimated wheat acres at 49.5 million acres compared to 45.7 ma last year
The carryout is estimated to increase to 606 from 568 this year
Russia continues to offer wheat for significantly less than the US, but with the ongoing war, their wheat supplies are due to slow down eventually which could support prices in the long run
Ukraine is seeking a one-year extension of the Black Sea grain deal with more ports allowed

Apr LC up 0.275 @ 165.400 & Mar FC up 0.925 @ 188.900
Live cattle are higher after news that Brazil was halting beef exports, and feeders are higher with lower corn today
Brazil has halted their beef exports due to reports of BSE, and China may have to come in to buy US beef in the interim
Cash is expected to be higher this week with a few cattle in the North already trading a dollar higher and asking prices in the South between 164 and 165
Choice cuts up 0.71 and select up 2.80
Cattle slaughter projected at 125K
CME Feeder Cattle Index for 2/22: up 0.01 @ 182.60

Apr hogs down 0.700 @ 85.825 & Apr pork cutout down 0.775 @ 92.775
Hogs are trading lower this morning after cash fell slightly but the cutouts rose by a minuscule 4 cents
The winter storm has had an impact on the movement of hogs and Saturday slaughter is now estimated at 128,000 head
Packers are well bought for the week and do not have much incentive to bid up for cash, especially with cutouts at their current levels
National Direct Afternoon report fell 0.32
Hog slaughter projected at 439K
CME Lean Hog Index for 2/23: up 0.77 @ 77.53

Amanda Brill