TFM Midday Update 02-27-2024


  • March corn futures broke four-dollar support and are trading below that level this morning. Front month corn futures have not traded below four dollars since late 2020.
  • According to the CFTC, funds are now net short a record 340,732 contracts of corn as of February, 20.
  • Some scattered showers fell over South America this weekend – later this week, heavier amounts are expected Argentina and southern Brazil. According to Ag Rural, 80% of the safrinha corn crop is now planted in Mato Grosso, Brazil.
  • Friday’s Cattle on Feed report indicated higher placements and on feed numbers which may indicate stronger domestic feed demand.


  • According to Ag Rural, Brazilian soybean harvest is now about 40% complete. Additionally, they lowered their Brazilian bean production estimate from 150.1 to 147.7 mmt.
  • There is concern that China may import fewer soybeans than what the USDA is forecasting. With the US uncompetitive with Brazil, this may mean that the lack of Chinese demand will be a larger factor for the US.
  • Globally, there are not major weather problems, and in the US, there is not a lot of concern as we go into March. The Midwest is perhaps a bit too dry in parts, which could increase the chance for a drier summer. However, the market likely won’t trade this until the April / May timeframe.


  • Matif wheat futures are trading lower for the second consecutive day, offering weakness to the US market.
  • Russian wheat export values are said to have fallen again to around $210 to $213 per mt FOB. This apparent freefall will make it quite difficult for wheat to rally.
  • South Korea did buy 172,300 mt of wheat, which was sourced from the US, Canada, and Australia. The fall in US wheat prices may encourage more world importers to step up and make purchases.
  • Although not a record like corn, funds are still said to be net short a hefty 110,000 contracts of combined Chicago and Kansas City wheat futures.


Brandon Doherty

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