TFM Midday Update 02-29-2024

CORN

Corn has traded both sides of unchanged this morning. Overnight strength in the March contract was a result of zero deliveries issued today on First Notice Day. Corn was lower at the 8:30 opening, likely due to pressure from sharply lower soybeans. But as of this writing, corn is now positive as beans have started to gain some strength.
The USDA reported an increase of 42.6 mb of corn export sales for 23/24 and an increase of 6.5 mb for 24/25. Shipments last week totaling 47.9 mb were above the 45.5 mb pace needed per week to reach the USDA’s export goal of 2.1 bb.
Recent rains in the US have been in the delta and eastern Corn Belt. However, some precipitation is possible in the western Corn Belt next week. In South America, rains are mostly in northern Argentina and southern Brazil.

After a sharply lower opening at 8:30, soybeans are in positive territory at midday. Both soybean oil and meal have also turned positive, which is helping bean futures. It is also possible that the market is taking notice of the lower private production estimates in Brazil compared to the USDA.
There were 702 soybean deliveries issued on First Notice Day, which was higher than expected. This may have contributed to early weakness in the futures.
The USDA reported an increase of just 5.9 mb of soybean export sales for 23/24. Shipments last week at 40.5 mb were above the 18.2 mb pace needed per week to reach the USDA’s export goal of 1.434 bb.

There were 484 Chicago wheat deliveries issued today, which was more than anticipated, and this may have lent some early weakness to wheat. But like corn, wheat is also on the rise at midday as soybeans have come well off their daily lows.
The USDA reported an increase of 12.0 mb of wheat export sales for 23/24 and a decrease of 0.2 mb for 24/25. Shipments last week at 19.8 mb were above the 17.9 mb pace needed per week to reach the USDA’s export goal of 725 mb.
Combined Russian and Ukrainian wheat exports for February were said to be a record 6.5 mmt. Along with dropping Russian FOB values, this will likely keep pressure on US futures.

Brandon Doherty