TFM Midday Update 03-01-2024

CORN

There are rumors that China is looking to buy corn from the US Pacific Northwest. No flash sales were announced this morning, but even if there had been, this may have already been priced into the market.
US ethanol production is said to be up 4.5% in 23/24, which is above the USDA’s projection.
Central Brazil has had a break from rain over the course of this week which should help their corn planting pace. However, rains are expected to return this weekend and into next week.
According to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, Argentina’s corn crop is rated 87% fair to excellent.

Export shipments of US soybeans in 23/24 are down 21% from last year, which is below the USDA’s projected pace. This may continue to weigh on the market, especially as the US is uncompetitive with South America.
March soybean FOB values in Paranagua, Brazil are said to be about $1.05 per bu less than prices out of New Orleans.
The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange rated Argentina’s soybean crop, 82% fair to excellent, a 1% decrease from last week’s 83% fair to excellent rating.
According to the US Energy Department, 1.14 billion pounds of soybean oil were used to make biofuel in the month of December, an increase from November’s usage of 1.062 billion pounds.

Matif wheat is trading sharply lower this morning and near the lowest level in over three years. This may be in part what is weighing on the US market.
With the 23/24 marketing season ending in June, US wheat export shipments are down 11% from last year. The USDA is forecasting 725 mb of wheat exports in 23/24 which is the lowest estimate in over 50 years.
Some meteorologists are predicting a drier-than-normal summer, especially in the western Corn Belt. The recent wildfires in the western plains states act as a reminder of the dryness in that region; so far there is no major concern about damage to the wheat crop, though it will take time to assess.
With Russia remaining dominant on the export front and no major weather issues globally, it may be difficult for wheat to find a fundamental reason to rally.

Brandon Doherty