TFM Midday Update 03-04-2022


  • May corn up 33 @ 7.81
  • Reports of Russian troops shelling (and then taking control of) the largest nuclear power plant in Ukraine
  • Southern Brazil and northern Argentina are getting rains but Paraguay and central Brazil are dry
  • NATO will meet regarding Article 4 in their treaty
  • It could be months before there are any corn (or wheat) exports from Ukraine


  • May soybeans up 18 @ 16.86
  • New crop soybean (and corn) export commitments at the end of Feb are the largest on record since 1990
  • Private Brazil soybean crop estimates are as low as 120-122 mmt (vs the USDA’s 134 mmt)
  • Talk of Argentina’s soybean crop at 42 mmt (vs the USDA’s 45 mmt)
  • The Biden administration is reportedly talking about eliminating some biofuel blending requirements to help with food inflation

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  • May wheat up 75 @ 12.09, May KC up 75 @ 12.25-1/4, May MNPLS up 60 @ 11.78-1/4
  • Paris milling wheat futures were up over 40 Euros overnight (roughly $1.20)
  • Chi and KC have had limit up moves for 4 days in a row
  • World wheat importers are looking for alternatives as Black Sea ports have been closed
  • The wheat market is focused on Ukraine / Russia, but US weather in the southern plains also remains a bullish factor


  • Apr LC down 2.675 @ 135.675 & Apr FC down 4.625 @ 155.900
  • Live cattle are at or near technical support levels
  • Fundamentals have not changed with an outlook for tighter supplies
  • Cash was lower this week
  • Boxed beef continues to fall
  • Choice cuts down 1.37 and select down 3.55
  • Cattle slaughter projected at 118K
  • CME Feeder Cattle Index for 3/3: down 1.47 @ 157.78


  • Apr hogs down 3.050 @ 102.150 & Apr pork cutout down 2.600 @ 108.700
  • Cutouts declined 3.01, which pressured futures
  • Spillover pressure from lower cattle is not helping hogs
  • Some support may come from good export sales and China buying
  • National Direct Afternoon Report decreased 3.85
  • Hog slaughter projected at 475K
  • CME Lean Hog Index for 3/4: down 0.14 @ 99.70


Brandon Doherty

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