CORN
- May corn up 33 @ 7.81
- Reports of Russian troops shelling (and then taking control of) the largest nuclear power plant in Ukraine
- Southern Brazil and northern Argentina are getting rains but Paraguay and central Brazil are dry
- NATO will meet regarding Article 4 in their treaty
- It could be months before there are any corn (or wheat) exports from Ukraine
SOYBEANS
- May soybeans up 18 @ 16.86
- New crop soybean (and corn) export commitments at the end of Feb are the largest on record since 1990
- Private Brazil soybean crop estimates are as low as 120-122 mmt (vs the USDA’s 134 mmt)
- Talk of Argentina’s soybean crop at 42 mmt (vs the USDA’s 45 mmt)
- The Biden administration is reportedly talking about eliminating some biofuel blending requirements to help with food inflation
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WHEAT
- May wheat up 75 @ 12.09, May KC up 75 @ 12.25-1/4, May MNPLS up 60 @ 11.78-1/4
- Paris milling wheat futures were up over 40 Euros overnight (roughly $1.20)
- Chi and KC have had limit up moves for 4 days in a row
- World wheat importers are looking for alternatives as Black Sea ports have been closed
- The wheat market is focused on Ukraine / Russia, but US weather in the southern plains also remains a bullish factor
CATTLE
- Apr LC down 2.675 @ 135.675 & Apr FC down 4.625 @ 155.900
- Live cattle are at or near technical support levels
- Fundamentals have not changed with an outlook for tighter supplies
- Cash was lower this week
- Boxed beef continues to fall
- Choice cuts down 1.37 and select down 3.55
- Cattle slaughter projected at 118K
- CME Feeder Cattle Index for 3/3: down 1.47 @ 157.78
HOGS
- Apr hogs down 3.050 @ 102.150 & Apr pork cutout down 2.600 @ 108.700
- Cutouts declined 3.01, which pressured futures
- Spillover pressure from lower cattle is not helping hogs
- Some support may come from good export sales and China buying
- National Direct Afternoon Report decreased 3.85
- Hog slaughter projected at 475K
- CME Lean Hog Index for 3/4: down 0.14 @ 99.70
Author
Brandon Doherty