TFM Midday Update 03-06-2025

CORN

Corn trading continues to rise at midday, as optimism grows following a heavy-volume selloff earlier in the week. Traders are hopeful that tariffs could be eased on certain products, including corn.
Corn weekly export sales came in at 38 mb and were in line with expectations. With old crop sales at 1.951 billion, up 26% from YA vs the USDA forecast of up 7%.
Total corn commitments to Mexico have reached a record 705 million, with fulfilled shipments totaling 405 million, leaving 300 million still outstanding.
Dry conditions in Brazil are starting to attract market attention, with dry weather expected to persist over the next two weeks. While it’s not a concern now, the situation will need to be monitored closely as the dryness continues.

Soybeans continue to trade higher at midday, building on yesterday’s strength amid ongoing tariff uncertainties. Soybeans, soybean meal, and soybean oil are all posting gains.
USDA confirms the sale of 20,000 tons of U.S. soy oil for delivery to an unknown destination for the 24/25 year.
Weekly soybean exports came in at 38 mb, in line with expectations. Old crop commitments are at 1.631 billion, up 13% from YA vs the USDA forecast of up 8%.
Brazil’s soybean crop is now forecasted at 171.6 mmt, down from the previous estimate of 174 mmt, due to hot and dry weather in key growing areas. Despite the decrease, the crop is still projected to be 11% higher than the 2023/24 season.

Wheat remains higher at midday, as optimism grows that a tariff compromise for grains can be reached with Canada and Mexico.
Weekly wheat exports came in at 15 mb and were in line with expectations. Year-to-date commitments are at 746 mb, up 10% from the YA vs the USDA forecast of up 20%.
Wheat fundamentals could shift significantly depending on how the U.S. wheat crop and Black Sea crops finish. Weather conditions this month and into April will play a crucial role in crop development during this critical period.

Lauren VandenLangenberg