TFM Midday Update 03-07-2023

CORN

May corn down 1 @ 6.36
Corn is trading slightly lower in anticipation of tomorrow’s WASDE which may show exports revised to be lower
Last week 35.4 mb of corn were inspected for export which brings total inspections to 602 mb and is down 38% from the previous year
There have been some rumors of China buying US corn as it is now supposedly cheaper than Ukrainian offers but the rumors are unconfirmed
Private analysts are now pegging Argentina’s corn crop as low as 36 to 39 mmt which is significantly below the USDA’s last estimate of 47 mmt

May soybeans down 9 @ 15.20
Soybeans are trading lower pulled down by a sharp selloff in bean oil as Malaysian palm oil fell another 1.8% and crude down over a dollar a barrel as well
Argentina’s soybean production continues to look worse and worse with some private analysts predicting a drop below 30 mmt
Tomorrow’s WASDE could show the USDA lowering Argentina production from their previous estimate of 41 mmt to the lower 30’s
Brazil’s harvest is pegged at 43% complete which is up 10 points from last week despite wet conditions

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May Chi wheat up 4 @ 6.99, May KC up 3 @ 8.01, & May MNPLS down 3 @ 8.56
Wheat is trading slightly higher after dropping to its lowest levels in 17 months for Chi wheat and 13 months for KC yesterday
Cheap offers out of Russia continue to pressure world prices lower
The Black Sea wheat corridor has not been confirmed to be extended yet and likely only will be if it benefits Russia in some way
Australia’s ABARE raised Australian wheat production to a record large 39.2 mmt which could add additional bearish pressure

Apr LC down 0.100 @ 166.000 & Apr FC down 0.025 @ 198.600
Both live and feeder cattle are lower today, but the overall trend has been friendly with boxed beef and cash on the rise
Cash may be higher again this week now that feedlots are in control and packers need cattle with 23% of purchases last week for delayed delivery
Choice cuts up 0.88 and select down 0.39
Cattle slaughter projected at 125K
CME Feeder Cattle Index for 3/6: up 1.78 @ 187.21

Apr hogs down 0.100 @ 99.500 & Apr pork cutout down 0.300 @ 90.050
Hogs are lower today after cash fell but the cutouts gained 1.76, but the overall trend for cash and cutout has been lower than needed
This morning China warned that “conflict is inevitable” with the US unless the US changes course and that may be negatively affecting hogs and soybeans
National Direct Afternoon report lost 0.66
Hog slaughter projected at 480K
CME Lean Hog Index for 3/7: up 0.20 @ 78.91

Amanda Brill