TFM Midday Update 03-07-2023


  • May corn down 1 @ 6.36
  • Corn is trading slightly lower in anticipation of tomorrow’s WASDE which may show exports revised to be lower
  • Last week 35.4 mb of corn were inspected for export which brings total inspections to 602 mb and is down 38% from the previous year
  • There have been some rumors of China buying US corn as it is now supposedly cheaper than Ukrainian offers but the rumors are unconfirmed
  • Private analysts are now pegging Argentina’s corn crop as low as 36 to 39 mmt which is significantly below the USDA’s last estimate of 47 mmt


  • May soybeans down 9 @ 15.20
  • Soybeans are trading lower pulled down by a sharp selloff in bean oil as Malaysian palm oil fell another 1.8% and crude down over a dollar a barrel as well
  • Argentina’s soybean production continues to look worse and worse with some private analysts predicting a drop below 30 mmt
  • Tomorrow’s WASDE could show the USDA lowering Argentina production from their previous estimate of 41 mmt to the lower 30’s
  • Brazil’s harvest is pegged at 43% complete which is up 10 points from last week despite wet conditions


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  • May Chi wheat up 4 @ 6.99May KC up 3 @ 8.01, & May MNPLS down 3 @ 8.56
  • Wheat is trading slightly higher after dropping to its lowest levels in 17 months for Chi wheat and 13 months for KC yesterday
  • Cheap offers out of Russia continue to pressure world prices lower
  • The Black Sea wheat corridor has not been confirmed to be extended yet and likely only will be if it benefits Russia in some way
  • Australia’s ABARE raised Australian wheat production to a record large 39.2 mmt which could add additional bearish pressure


  • Apr LC down 0.100 @ 166.000 & Apr FC down 0.025 @ 198.600
  • Both live and feeder cattle are lower today, but the overall trend has been friendly with boxed beef and cash on the rise
  • Cash may be higher again this week now that feedlots are in control and packers need cattle with 23% of purchases last week for delayed delivery
  • Choice cuts up 0.88 and select down 0.39
  • Cattle slaughter projected at 125K
  • CME Feeder Cattle Index for 3/6: up 1.78 @ 187.21


  • Apr hogs down 0.100 @ 99.500 & Apr pork cutout down 0.300 @ 90.050
  • Hogs are lower today after cash fell but the cutouts gained 1.76, but the overall trend for cash and cutout has been lower than needed
  • This morning China warned that “conflict is inevitable” with the US unless the US changes course and that may be negatively affecting hogs and soybeans
  • National Direct Afternoon report lost 0.66
  • Hog slaughter projected at 480K
  • CME Lean Hog Index for 3/7: up 0.20 @ 78.91


Amanda Brill

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