TFM Midday Update 03-08-2023

CORN

May corn up 1 @ 6.34
Corn is trading higher in the front months but lower in deferred as trade awaits the WASDE numbers to see if any major changes are made
Average trade estimates call for the USDA to lower Argentinian corn production to around 43.5 mmt from last months 47 mmt, but that may still be too high
Comments be Fed chairman Powell yesterday about increasing rate hikes to slow inflation have set a bearish tone over commodity and equity markets as the dollar rises
Brazil’s safrinha corn crop is now about 70% planted in moist ground and the crop is estimated to be a record large 125 mmt

May soybeans up 8 @ 15.24
Soybeans are trading higher with most of the gains in the front months as new crop picks up about a penny ahead of the WASDE numbers which shouldn’t hold many surprises
The main adjustment that is anticipated is a revision of Argentina’s production that trade estimates are guessing will come in around 36.3 mmt from last month’s 41 mmt
Brazil’s bean harvest is about 50% complete and their production estimates of a record 153 mmt are not expected to be adjusted today
One other possibility is that the USDA slightly increases soybean exports which could affect the carryout

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May Chi wheat down 7 @ 6.91, May KC down 2 @ 7.97, & May MNPLS down 2 @ 8.44
Wheat is trading lower again as Paris milling wheat futures continue to slip amid Russia’s cheaper cash offers
Australia’s ABARE raised Australian wheat production to a record large 39.2 mmt which could add additional bearish pressure
Russia has said that they are willing to renew the Black Sea export deal if sanctions on them are lifted
Today’s WASDE is not expected to hold many surprises in wheat but will show again the extremely tight wheat supplies

Apr LC down 0.850 @ 165.150 & Apr FC up 0.050 @ 198.725
Live cattle are trading lower while feeders are lower in the front months but higher in deferred after boxed beef was mixed and cash feeders are trading far above the board
Cash is expected to be higher again this week but possibly not as high as anticipated and may only show gains of a dollar
Choice cuts down 2.27 and select up 1.02
Cattle slaughter projected at 126K
CME Feeder Cattle Index for 3/7: up 0.83 @ 188.04

Apr hogs up 0.825 @ 85.625 & Apr pork cutout up 0.825 @ 92.200
Hogs are trading higher in April but lower in all of the deferred months as cash gained but cutouts lost 0.31
April closed significantly higher yesterday as short covering was triggered but the buyers have not been out there in the deferred months
National Direct Afternoon report gained 0.56
Hog slaughter projected at 482K
CME Lean Hog Index for 3/8: up 0.18 @ 79.09

Amanda Brill