TFM Midday Update 03-09-2023


  • May corn down 10 @ 6.16
  • Corn is trading lower after yesterday’s slightly bearish WASDE, but strong export sales last week are not getting the market to react positively
  • The USDA reported an increase of 55.6 mb of corn export sales last week for 22/23, up 57% from the prior 4-week average
  • Export shipments were 41.4 mb and a marketing year high, up 58% from the previous week but still below the needed 48.1 mb to meet the USDA’s expectations
  • AgResource has revised their projections for the Argentine corn crop lower at 38.4 mmt which is lower than the USDA estimate yesterday of 40 mmt


  • May soybeans down 11 @ 15.08
  • Soybeans are trading lower despite a slightly friendly WASDE yesterday, a CONAB reduction in Argentinian bean production, and a flash sale this morning
  • Yesterday the USDA lowered their estimates for the carryout by 15 mb to 210 mb and lowered world ending stocks slightly
  • The Rosario Grain Exchange lowered their soybean crop estimates to  just 27 mmt from their previous estimate of 34.5 mmt as this soy harvest could be worst on record
  • The USDA reported net sales cancellations of 852,000 bushels of soybeans last week for 22/23, a marketing year low, and an increase of 6.3 mb for 23/24 while exports were 21.3 mb
  • Private exporters reported sales of 184,000 metric tons of beans for delivery to unknown during 22/23


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  • May Chi wheat down 17 @ 6.70, May KC down 17 @ 7.83, & May MNPLS down 4 @ 8.31
  • Wheat is down sharply again and is now at the lowest levels since July of 2021 as funds continue selling, and export sales are poor
  • The USDA reported an increase of 9.8 mb of wheat export sales for 22/23 which was down 6% from the previous week but up 11% from the prior 4-week average
  • Export shipments of 13.9 mb were below the 17 mb needed each week to achieve the USDA’s export estimate of 775 mb and was down 38% from the previous week
  • The USDA left Russian production unchanged at 92 mmt which is 8 mmt lower than some other private analyst projections


  • Apr LC down 0.075 @ 165.375 & Apr FC up 0.325 @ 200.550
  • Live cattle are trading lower with lower corn and poor export sales, while feeders are higher in the nearby months but lower in deferred
  • Net sales of beef were just 5,600 mt for 2023 which was a marketing year low and was down 31% from the previous week and 67% from the prior 4-week average
  • Choice cuts down 3.15 and select up 0.63
  • Cattle slaughter projected at 125K
  • CME Feeder Cattle Index for 3/8: up 0.83 @ 188.04


  • Apr hogs down 0.600 @ 85.125 & Apr pork cutout up 0.575 @ 92.900
  • Hogs are trading lower in April but higher in the deferred months following disappointing export sales while cash moved higher, and the cutouts gained 0.64
  • Pork exports were 22,100 mt for 2023 which was down 29% from the previous week and 44% from the prior 4-week average
  • National Direct Afternoon report gained 0.55
  • Hog slaughter projected at 482K
  • CME Lean Hog Index for 3/9: up 0.18 @ 79.09


Amanda Brill

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