TFM Midday Update 03-09-2023

CORN

May corn down 10 @ 6.16
Corn is trading lower after yesterday’s slightly bearish WASDE, but strong export sales last week are not getting the market to react positively
The USDA reported an increase of 55.6 mb of corn export sales last week for 22/23, up 57% from the prior 4-week average
Export shipments were 41.4 mb and a marketing year high, up 58% from the previous week but still below the needed 48.1 mb to meet the USDA’s expectations
AgResource has revised their projections for the Argentine corn crop lower at 38.4 mmt which is lower than the USDA estimate yesterday of 40 mmt

May soybeans down 11 @ 15.08
Soybeans are trading lower despite a slightly friendly WASDE yesterday, a CONAB reduction in Argentinian bean production, and a flash sale this morning
Yesterday the USDA lowered their estimates for the carryout by 15 mb to 210 mb and lowered world ending stocks slightly
The Rosario Grain Exchange lowered their soybean crop estimates to just 27 mmt from their previous estimate of 34.5 mmt as this soy harvest could be worst on record
The USDA reported net sales cancellations of 852,000 bushels of soybeans last week for 22/23, a marketing year low, and an increase of 6.3 mb for 23/24 while exports were 21.3 mb
Private exporters reported sales of 184,000 metric tons of beans for delivery to unknown during 22/23

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May Chi wheat down 17 @ 6.70, May KC down 17 @ 7.83, & May MNPLS down 4 @ 8.31
Wheat is down sharply again and is now at the lowest levels since July of 2021 as funds continue selling, and export sales are poor
The USDA reported an increase of 9.8 mb of wheat export sales for 22/23 which was down 6% from the previous week but up 11% from the prior 4-week average
Export shipments of 13.9 mb were below the 17 mb needed each week to achieve the USDA’s export estimate of 775 mb and was down 38% from the previous week
The USDA left Russian production unchanged at 92 mmt which is 8 mmt lower than some other private analyst projections

Apr LC down 0.075 @ 165.375 & Apr FC up 0.325 @ 200.550
Live cattle are trading lower with lower corn and poor export sales, while feeders are higher in the nearby months but lower in deferred
Net sales of beef were just 5,600 mt for 2023 which was a marketing year low and was down 31% from the previous week and 67% from the prior 4-week average
Choice cuts down 3.15 and select up 0.63
Cattle slaughter projected at 125K
CME Feeder Cattle Index for 3/8: up 0.83 @ 188.04

Apr hogs down 0.600 @ 85.125 & Apr pork cutout up 0.575 @ 92.900
Hogs are trading lower in April but higher in the deferred months following disappointing export sales while cash moved higher, and the cutouts gained 0.64
Pork exports were 22,100 mt for 2023 which was down 29% from the previous week and 44% from the prior 4-week average
National Direct Afternoon report gained 0.55
Hog slaughter projected at 482K
CME Lean Hog Index for 3/9: up 0.18 @ 79.09

Amanda Brill