TFM Midday Update 03-10-2023

CORN

May corn up 3 @ 6.14
Corn is trading slightly higher today as prices near support levels at 6 dollars and gets some support from Argentina’s lower crop rating
The USDA reduced estimates for Argentina’s crop to 40 mmt but now the Rosario Grain Exchange and Buenos Aires Exchanges are estimating lower at 36 mmt
Because Brazil’s bean harvest is running behind due to moisture, some of their corn crop will be seeded outside the ideal window and could affect production
Despite good export sales last week, export sales commitments are 39% below a year ago but prices are becoming more competitive

May soybeans down 6 @ 15.05
While Argentina’s estimated drop in production is giving corn some support today it is not doing the same for soybeans as yesterday’s sales cancellations trigger liquidation
The USDA reported net sales cancellations of 852,000 bushels of soybeans last week for 22/23, a marketing year low, and an increase of 6.3 mb for 23/24 while exports were 21.3 mb
Both the Rosario and Buenos Aires grain exchanges reduced their production estimates to 27 mmt and 29 mmt respectively while the last WASDE was at 33 mmt
May beans dropped below their 50-day moving average and today briefly fell below 15 dollars

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May Chi wheat up 6 @ 6.72, May KC up 5 @ 7.82, & May MNPLS down 24 @ 8.11
Wheat is trading slightly higher today as funds likely take a breather from adding to their short positions ahead of the weekend
The USDA reported an increase of 9.8 mb of wheat export sales for 22/23 which was down 6% from the previous week but up 11% from the prior 4-week average
Export shipments of 13.9 mb were below the 17 mb needed each week to achieve the USDA’s export estimate of 775 mb and was down 38% from the previous week
The USDA left Russian production unchanged at 92 mmt which is 8 mmt lower than some other private analyst projections

Apr LC down 0.025 @ 164.850 & Apr FC down 0.925 @ 198.200
Both live and feeder cattle are lower today after yesterday’s poor export sales, lower boxed beef, and then higher corn today pressuring feeders
Some cash deals in the North were completed around 265 while deals in the South were done around 165 for another week of better cash
Choice cuts down 0.18 and select down 2.07
Cattle slaughter projected at 120K
CME Feeder Cattle Index for 3/9: up 1.51 @ 188.72

Apr hogs up 1.850 @ 86.900 & Apr pork cutout up 1.875 @ 93.850
Hogs are trading higher finally and appear to have put a bottom in as cutouts gained 0.73 but cash fell slightly
Weekly export sales were not terrible but weren’t great either at 22,100 metric tons, but more concerning was that China wasn’t listed as a top buyer
National Direct Afternoon report fell 0.44
Hog slaughter projected at 479K
CME Lean Hog Index for 3/10: up 0.30 @ 79.39

Amanda Brill