TFM Midday Update 03-14-2023


  • May corn up 4 @ 6.18
  • Corn inspections at 39.3 mb bring total 22/23 inspections to 642 mb
  • There is continued concern about the uncertainty of the US banking system and how it may impact markets
  • The USDA confirmed a sale of 610,000 mt of corn for delivery to China during 22/23
  • US corn export sales remain 39% below last year
  • Brazil corn planting is delayed because of rains which could be an issue down the road when their monsoon season is over


  • May soybeans down 6 @ 14.85
  • Soybean inspections at 22.7 mb bring total 22/23 inspections to 1,592 mb
  • May soybeans are down this morning for the 5th time in 6 sessions
  • Malaysian palm oil is trending lower which may weigh on the soybean complex
  • Tomorrow the market will receive February NOPA crush numbers (166 mb is the average crush estimate vs 179 mb in January)
  • Private guesses suggest Argentina’s soybean crop could be 4-6 mmt lower than the USDA’s 33 mmt


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  • May Chi wheat up 9 @ 6.93May KC up 14 @ 8.14, & May MNPLS up 6 @ 8.39
  • Wheat inspections at 9.1 mb bring total 22/23 inspections to 584 mb
  • Saudi Arabia bought wheat and the Russian price was as low as $280 per ton
  • Recent weakness in the US Dollar may be supporting wheat prices
  • Russia has reportedly said they are willing to extend the Black Sea export corridor for just 60 days (but Ukraine is seeking a longer time frame)
  • 55% of US winter wheat is said to be experiencing drought conditions


  • Apr LC up 0.175 @ 163.725 Apr FC down 0.650 @ 196.425
  • April and June live cattle gapped lower on the charts yesterday – so far today the April gap remains open but June was closed
  • Tighter cattle numbers would suggest support, but slow exports and recent boxed beef weakness may keep cattle under pressure
  • Packers may need to bid up this week to maintain slaughter pace
  • Choice cuts down 0.05 and select up 2.08
  • Cattle slaughter projected at 126K
  • CME Feeder Cattle Index for 3/13: up 0.94 @ 189.77


  • Apr hogs down 0.150 @ 86.075Apr pork cutout down 0.500 @ 92.600
  • Hogs managed to find support after a weak start yesterday, but are lower at midday today
  • April futures still have an inverted head and shoulders chart pattern
  • April futures remain at a premium to the index, which may limit upside potential
  • A $1 gain in cutouts partially offset the losses in cash
  • National Direct Afternoon report declined 2.77
  • Hog slaughter projected at 482K
  • CME Lean Hog Index for 3/14: up 0.24 @ 79.86


Brandon Doherty

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