TFM Midday Update 03-14-2023

CORN

May corn up 4 @ 6.18
Corn inspections at 39.3 mb bring total 22/23 inspections to 642 mb
There is continued concern about the uncertainty of the US banking system and how it may impact markets
The USDA confirmed a sale of 610,000 mt of corn for delivery to China during 22/23
US corn export sales remain 39% below last year
Brazil corn planting is delayed because of rains which could be an issue down the road when their monsoon season is over

May soybeans down 6 @ 14.85
Soybean inspections at 22.7 mb bring total 22/23 inspections to 1,592 mb
May soybeans are down this morning for the 5th time in 6 sessions
Malaysian palm oil is trending lower which may weigh on the soybean complex
Tomorrow the market will receive February NOPA crush numbers (166 mb is the average crush estimate vs 179 mb in January)
Private guesses suggest Argentina’s soybean crop could be 4-6 mmt lower than the USDA’s 33 mmt

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May Chi wheat up 9 @ 6.93, May KC up 14 @ 8.14, & May MNPLS up 6 @ 8.39
Wheat inspections at 9.1 mb bring total 22/23 inspections to 584 mb
Saudi Arabia bought wheat and the Russian price was as low as $280 per ton
Recent weakness in the US Dollar may be supporting wheat prices
Russia has reportedly said they are willing to extend the Black Sea export corridor for just 60 days (but Ukraine is seeking a longer time frame)
55% of US winter wheat is said to be experiencing drought conditions

Apr LC up 0.175 @ 163.725 & Apr FC down 0.650 @ 196.425
April and June live cattle gapped lower on the charts yesterday – so far today the April gap remains open but June was closed
Tighter cattle numbers would suggest support, but slow exports and recent boxed beef weakness may keep cattle under pressure
Packers may need to bid up this week to maintain slaughter pace
Choice cuts down 0.05 and select up 2.08
Cattle slaughter projected at 126K
CME Feeder Cattle Index for 3/13: up 0.94 @ 189.77

Apr hogs down 0.150 @ 86.075 & Apr pork cutout down 0.500 @ 92.600
Hogs managed to find support after a weak start yesterday, but are lower at midday today
April futures still have an inverted head and shoulders chart pattern
April futures remain at a premium to the index, which may limit upside potential
A $1 gain in cutouts partially offset the losses in cash
National Direct Afternoon report declined 2.77
Hog slaughter projected at 482K
CME Lean Hog Index for 3/14: up 0.24 @ 79.86

Brandon Doherty