TFM Midday Update 03-15-2023


  • May corn up 3 @ 6.24
  • Yesterday the CFTC released the COT report for February 28, which showed more fund liquidation than expected
  • Private exporters reported sales of 667,000 mt of corn for delivery to China during the 22/23 marketing year (this is in addition to yesterday’s announced sale)
  • Yesterday, senators introduced legislation to allow nationwide blending of E-15 year round
  • Banking system issues are still a concern with Credit Suisse bank stock losing 24% overnight


  • May soybeans down 7 @ 14.87
  • Crude oil is sharply so far today, adding to market pressure
  • There is concern over global economics with the EU expected to raise rates 50 basis points
  • China is said to have an outbreak of African swine fever which could reduce feed demand
  • Some private estimates of Argentina’s soybean crop range from 25-29 mmt – the USDA’s last estimate was 33 mmt
  • According to US and Japan officials, La Nina has come to an end


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  • May Chi wheat up 3 @ 6.99May KC up 1 @ 8.19, & May MNPLS down 4 @ 8.46
  • There is still no word on the extension of the Black Sea export deal – Russia wants just a 60-day extension but Ukraine is asking for more
  • A large number of vessels are still sitting in Turkey awaiting inspection
  • The US Dollar is rallying this morning, which may limit upside potential for wheat
  • Drought remains a concern in the US southern plains


  • Apr LC down 1.100 @ 161.950 Apr FC down 2.000 @ 193.750
  • Cattle on Feed report will be released this Friday – expectations are for bullish numbers
  • Cash is expected to remain steady this week, which may offer support
  • April live cattle still have a chart gap above the current level
  • Choice cuts up 1.05 and select up 0.94
  • Cattle slaughter projected at 126K
  • CME Feeder Cattle Index for 3/15: down 0.26 @ 189.51


  • Apr hogs down 0.500 @ 84.900 Apr pork cutout down 0.650 @ 91.775
  • China has a surge in African swine fever
  • Demand has not been strong enough to support cutouts
  • Packers may bid up to obtain hogs, needing to maintain slaughter pace
  • National Direct Afternoon report increased 2.71
  • Hog slaughter projected at 484K
  • CME Lean Hog Index for 3/15: up 0.03 @ 79.89


Brandon Doherty

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