TFM Midday Update 03-15-2023

CORN

May corn up 3 @ 6.24
Yesterday the CFTC released the COT report for February 28, which showed more fund liquidation than expected
Private exporters reported sales of 667,000 mt of corn for delivery to China during the 22/23 marketing year (this is in addition to yesterday’s announced sale)
Yesterday, senators introduced legislation to allow nationwide blending of E-15 year round
Banking system issues are still a concern with Credit Suisse bank stock losing 24% overnight

May soybeans down 7 @ 14.87
Crude oil is sharply so far today, adding to market pressure
There is concern over global economics with the EU expected to raise rates 50 basis points
China is said to have an outbreak of African swine fever which could reduce feed demand
Some private estimates of Argentina’s soybean crop range from 25-29 mmt – the USDA’s last estimate was 33 mmt
According to US and Japan officials, La Nina has come to an end

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May Chi wheat up 3 @ 6.99, May KC up 1 @ 8.19, & May MNPLS down 4 @ 8.46
There is still no word on the extension of the Black Sea export deal – Russia wants just a 60-day extension but Ukraine is asking for more
A large number of vessels are still sitting in Turkey awaiting inspection
The US Dollar is rallying this morning, which may limit upside potential for wheat
Drought remains a concern in the US southern plains

Apr LC down 1.100 @ 161.950 & Apr FC down 2.000 @ 193.750
Cattle on Feed report will be released this Friday – expectations are for bullish numbers
Cash is expected to remain steady this week, which may offer support
April live cattle still have a chart gap above the current level
Choice cuts up 1.05 and select up 0.94
Cattle slaughter projected at 126K
CME Feeder Cattle Index for 3/15: down 0.26 @ 189.51

Brandon Doherty