TFM Midday Update 03-16-2022

CORN

  • May corn down 26 @ 7.32
  • Spread of COVID in China is causing concern about their import demand and economy – lockdowns in the Jilin province are affecting about 24 million people
  • Today, the Fed will come out with their interest rate recommendations – expectation is for 25 basis points
  • A possible Canadian Pacific railway strike could cause supply chain issues
  • May corn on China’s Dalian Exchange is around the equivalent of $11.45 per bushel

SOYBEANS

  • May soybeans down 9 @ 16.50
  • NOPA February crush was the 2nd highest February crush on record at 165.057 mb (vs expectations of 165.0 mb)
  • Talk that Chinese soybean imports could be below the USDA’s 94 mmt could offer some resistance to the market
  • US soybeans remain the cheapest in the world
  • Rumors that China is again looking for old and new crop US soybeans

 

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WHEAT

  • May wheat down 85 @ 10.69-1/4, May KC down 85 @ 10.72-1/2, May MNPLS down 60 @ 10.50-1/4
  • A weather event could bring needed moisture to the US southern Plains over the next 10 days and is pressuring wheat
  • Rumors that there may be a ceasefire by Russia next week, however, Ukraine would have to give up territory

CATTLE

  • Apr LC down 0.175 @ 140.675 Apr FC up 1.625 @ 164.225
  • Corn is consolidating, which is supportive to cattle futures
  • Feedlots may hold out for higher cash this week
  • Cash may be steady this week as packers already have some purchased ahead
  • Choice cuts up 2.39 and select up 1.10
  • Cattle slaughter projected at 125K
  • CME Feeder Cattle Index for 3/15: up 0.50 @ 152.81

HOGS

  • Apr hogs up 0.375 @ 102.775 & Apr pork cutout up 0.600 @ 108.600
  • Workforce issues are still affecting processing plants
  • Packers were aggressive yesterday
  • Cutouts and cash were higher – supportive to futures
  • National Direct Afternoon report increased 4.67
  • Hog slaughter projected at 478K
  • CME Lean Hog Index for 3/16: down 0.36 @ 100.49

Author

Brandon Doherty

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