TFM Midday Update 03-16-2026

CORN

Corn futures are starting the week lower, following sharp losses in soybean futures. May corn is currently down 13 cents trading near 453 while December futures are 11 cents lower trading near 480.
In addition to weaker soybeans, crude oil futures are down about $4 per barrel, both weighing on a corn market that had recently moved into technically overbought territory.
In South America, Argentina’s corn harvest is roughly 10% complete, while second-crop corn planting in Mato Grosso, Brazil’s largest producing state, was essentially finished as of late last week.
A convergence of major moving averages just below the 450 level on May corn could provide strong technical support if the market continues to pull back.

Soybean futures are sharply lower early Monday, with May futures down over 50 cents, currently trading near 1173. Selling was triggered by reports that President Trump may postpone his late-March visit to China to focus on military operations in the Middle East.
The recent soybean rally had been supported by expectations surrounding the China meeting and stronger soybean oil prices. With uncertainty around the meeting and soybean oil down more than 3% this morning, the market has shifted to a risk-off tone to start the week.
In Argentina, soybeans are entering the peak pod-fill stage, with recent rainfall helping stabilize crop conditions. Additional moisture is expected over the next two weeks, which could support a strong finish to the growing season.
In Brazil, while quality concerns persist, the record crop size remains largely unquestioned. Harvest in Mato Grosso was estimated at 96% complete as of late last week.

Wheat futures are lower across the board Monday. Chicago May futures are down 13 cents trading near 600. May KC futures are down 5 cents trading near 625 while May Spring Wheat futures are down 9 cents trading near 627.
The U.S. hard red winter wheat belt is forecast to remain warmer and drier than normal over the next two weeks, allowing dryness concerns to persist across key growing areas. Meanwhile, sharply lower corn and soybean futures to start the week are weighing on wheat prices Monday.
S. demand remains relatively solid despite intense global competition, with export commitments up 12% from 2024–25 levels through March 5. However, U.S. wheat continues to face a pricing disadvantage compared to major exporters such as Argentina and Russia.

Keegan Madigan