TFM Midday Update 03-17-2023


  • May corn down 2 @ 6.31
  • Private exporters reported sales of 191,000 mt of corn for delivery to China during the 22/23 marketing year
  • There is talk of China lowering their reserve requirements 25 basis points to try to stimulate their economy
  • It is still hot and dry in Argentina but there are chances for rain in the 7-10 day forecast
  • US corn exports are still down 39% from last year


  • May soybeans down 20 @ 14.71
  • There are rumors that on this break in price, US might try to buy crude oil to replace strategic reserves
  • Argentina lowered their soybean crop estimate to 25 mmt
  • Brazil soybean basis is falling with increased farmer selling and reduced purchases from China so far
  • China may try to buy soybeans domestically to add to their reserves
  • Crude oil is lower again at midday, adding to market pressure


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  • May Chi wheat up 3 @ 7.02May KC up 10 @ 8.30, & May MNPLS up 3 @ 8.52
  • Funds are said to be short 96,000 contracts of Chicago wheat as of the most recent available data
  • Argentina has exported only about 2 mmt of wheat to date (compared to 9 mmt last year)
  • Brazil, which normally imports wheat, has actually shipped 2.6 mmt
  • The Black Sea Grain Initiative deal expires tomorrow and an agreement has not yet been reached


  • Apr LC down 0.400 @ 161.950 & Apr FC down 0.800 @ 194.350
  • Live cattle were supported yesterday by futures having a discount to cash, but are trending lower again this morning
  • Cattle on Feed report will be released this afternoon
  • Pre-report estimates: On feed at 95.6%, placements at 93.9%, marketings at 95.8%
  • Cattle numbers may tighten, but demand remains a concern
  • Choice cuts down 0.32 and select down 0.87
  • Cattle slaughter projected at 119K
  • CME Feeder Cattle Index for 3/16: down 0.68 @ 188.71


  • Apr hogs up 0.400 @ 79.850 Apr pork cutout down 0.625 @ 85.900
  • Hogs fell apart yesterday and are lower again this morning – there was not much news to drive this move
  • Selling pressure appears to be technical in nature, and amplified by stops being triggered
  • Futures are now oversold and may be in need of a correction if a bottom can be established
  • National Direct Afternoon report declined 0.37
  • Hog slaughter projected at 481K
  • CME Lean Hog Index for 3/17: up 0.02 @ 79.95


Brandon Doherty

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