TFM Midday Update 03-18-2022


  • May corn down 16 @ 7.39
  • There may be some profit taking today in case there is a ceasefire over the weekend, though as of now, shelling continues in Ukraine
  • Ukraine farmers may not be able to get crops planted – about 70% of their diesel fuel comes from Russia and Belarus
  • The market is still concerned about as much as 15 mmt of corn that may not get shipped out of Ukraine – of that amount, 6 mmt was going to China
  • President Biden will talk with China’s Xi Jinping about the war in Ukraine


  • May soybeans down 14 @ 16.55
  • Looking ahead, soybean oil may need some premium in the market if demand from the biofuel industry increases
  • There is still concern about China’s economy due to the covid outbreaks
  • Some sources suggest that Ukrainian corn acres will be switched to soybeans and sunflowers
  • Soybean export sales of 46.0 mb are the 2nd largest on record for this time period (2nd week of March)


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  • May wheat down 38 @ 10.60, May KC down 32 @ 10.60, May MNPLS down 23 @ 10.56
  • Wheat prices may be overvalued if there is a ceasefire by Russia
  • About 40% of the US southern Plains is forecasted to get an inch of rain next week
  • La Nina may be strengthening, suggesting that the US southern Plains will eventually go back to a warm and dry pattern
  • Volume in the wheat markets this week is at the lowest level in 1-2 months


  • Apr LC up 0.275 @ 139.750 & Apr FC up 1.250 @ 162.350
  • Steady to higher cast was supportive to futures
  • Slaughter is stronger than last year and demand is good
  • Corn futures are in a relatively sideways pattern, which may be supportive to feeder cattle
  • Choice cuts down 1.03 and select up 0.41
  • Cattle slaughter projected at 118K
  • CME Feeder Cattle Index for 3/17: up 1.09 @ 154.23


  • Apr hogs down 0.600 @ 99.750 & Apr pork cutout down 0.850 @ 106.200
  • Lower futures yesterday appears to be due to technical selling
  • Export sales were strong at 38,300 mt
  • A double top on some charts indicates resistance
  • National Direct Afternoon report declined 0.91
  • Hog slaughter projected at 476K
  • CME Lean Hog Index for 3/18: up 0.36 @ 100.77


Brandon Doherty

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