TFM Midday Update 03-19-2025

CORN

Corn futures remain mixed, as prices continue to face pressure due to expectations of a significant increase in planted acreage this spring, along with ongoing concerns about tariffs, as President Trump maintains an aggressive stance.
Yesterday S&P Global Commodity Insights increased its 2025 planted corn estimate for US corn to 94.3 million acres, up 800,000 acres from the previous forecast in January and up 3.7 million acres from 2024.
The Safrinha corn planting in Brazil is nearing completion, with 89.6% of the crop planted as of this week, compared to 92.3% at the same time last year and the five-year average of 90.4%. While the lack of abundant rain in recent weeks has allowed producers to make significant planting progress, additional rainfall is needed to ensure the crops continues to develop.
While corn demand has remained strong this year, China’s corn imports for January and February were the slowest in seven years, down 97% compared to the same period in 2024.
Ethanol production jumped to 325 million gallons, up from 312 million the previous week and up 5.6% from the YA.

Soybean futures turn lower at midday, continuing to face pressure from sluggish U.S. exports and expectations of a large crop from South America. Soybeans, soybean meal, and soybean oil turn lower at midday.
Heavy rains are forecast to arrive in the Pampas at the end of the week, potentially slowing the soybean harvest. However, the lack of rainfall in Brazil is allowing the harvest to progress smoothly. As of this week, Brazil’s soybean harvest is 69.8% complete, compared to 61.6% at this time last year and the five-year average of 64.9%.
Tariff negotiations continue to weigh on the soybean markets, as the lack of dialogue with China regarding trade limits any potential rallies, heightening concerns about the future of U.S. soybean demand.
S. soybean prices would be competitive with Brazil if not for the 10% tariff, as Brazilian soybean premiums have recently risen. To support prices, strong domestic soybean demand in the U.S. is crucial, as exports decline with a large volume of soybeans now available in Brazil.

Wheat markets remain mixed at midday, driven by ongoing weather concerns across the U.S.
Light precipitation has moved through western Kansas, but the rest of the southern Plains remain dry with very high winds. The extended forecast for the southern Plains offers little promise of rain over the next two weeks and beyond, with temperatures expected to remain above normal for the foreseeable future.
S&P Global has lowered its estimate for 2025 U.S. wheat acreage by 500,000 acres to 46.6 million, compared to the USDA’s estimate of 46.1 million.
LSEG left their Russian production estimate unchanged at 79.6 million tons vs the USDA at 81.5.
The phone call between President Trump and President Putin did not result in a ceasefire agreement; instead, they agreed to halt attacks on energy infrastructure. However, Ukraine accused Russia of attacking energy infrastructure within hours of the call. Trump and Zelensky are expected to speak today.

Lauren VandenLangenberg