TFM Midday Update 03-19-2026

CORN

Corn futures are trading slightly higher at midday, continuing to draw spillover support from strength in the energy markets. May corn futures are up 1-1/2 cents at $4.64-3/4, while December corn is 1-1/4 cents higher at $4.91.
USDA released its weekly export sales report this morning, showing solid demand for corn. Net sales for the 2025/26 marketing year totaled 1.17 million metric tons, with an additional 12,000 metric tons booked for the 2026/27 marketing year.
Oil markets saw sharp gains on Thursday, with prices jumping as much as 3% following a major escalation in the Middle East. Iran launched attacks on key energy infrastructure across the region in retaliation for a strike on its South Pars gas field, disrupting both oil and natural gas production and exports. For the corn market, this remains an important development. Corn maintains a strong relationship with energy markets through ethanol demand, meaning higher crude oil prices can provide underlying support to corn values as biofuel economics improve.

Soybean futures are posting modest gains as the market continues to recover from Monday’s losses. May soybean futures are up 1/4 cent at $11.62, while November soybeans are 5 cents higher at $11.46-1/2.
USDA reported soybean export sales this morning. Net sales for the 2025/26 marketing year totaled 298,200 metric tons, with an additional 6,600 metric tons booked for the 2026/27 marketing year.
Higher-than-expected inflation data released on Wednesday provided underlying support to both corn and soybean markets. Rising inflation expectations tend to draw investment into tangible assets like grains and oilseeds, as funds look to hedge against inflationary pressure.

The wheat complex is trading mixed at midday, with Kansas City futures under modest pressure while Minneapolis spring wheat posts slight gains. May Chicago wheat is down 2 cents at $6.02-1/4, Kansas City wheat is 5-3/4 cents lower at $6.20-1/4, and Minneapolis spring wheat is up 1/2 cent at $6.37-3/4.
Chinese customs data showed a sharp increase in wheat demand during February. Imports of wheat and wheat flour totaled 320,000 metric tons for the month, up 344.1% from a year ago. On a year-to-date basis, imports have reached 1.29 million metric tons, marking a substantial increase of 1,068.7% compared to the same period last year.
Coceral has increased its outlook for the 2026 EU and UK total grain harvest, now estimating production at 298.8 million metric tons, up from a previous forecast of 296.7 million. However, its wheat outlook moved in the opposite direction, with the estimate reduced from 143.9 million metric tons to 142.6 million. For reference, the 2025 wheat harvest totaled 148.7 million metric tons, indicating production is still expected to fall short of last year’s levels.

Matthew Lucas