TFM Midday Update 03-20-2026

CORN

Corn is trading lower at midday, pressured by modest weakness in crude oil markets. May corn is down 4 cents at 4.65 ¾.
Fertilizer, fuel, and shipping costs are becoming major concerns for the corn market as the upcoming planting season approaches. Ongoing global disruptions are impacting not only U.S. corn production but also international markets. In Brazil, which imports approximately 85% of its fertilizer, the Ag Minister recently warned that the risk of supply shortages is high.
Fuel prices have become a global concern as Iran has struck multiple energy production facilities across the Middle East. These disruptions are not only driving up fuel costs but also impacting natural gas supplies, a key input for fertilizer production. According to Bank of America, agricultural markets have yet to fully absorb the effects of these developments, including tightening fertilizer and fuel supplies.
The United States is working to secure and reopen the Strait, but it may take two weeks or more to fully deploy the necessary assets and implement operational protocols.

Soybeans are trading lower at midday following China’s decision to postpone the Beijing summit by one month. Soybeans and soybean meal are under pressure, while soybean oil is posting slight gains. May soybeans at 5 cents lower at 11.63 ½.
China continues to show limited interest in U.S. soybeans. In January and February 2025, purchases totaled just 1.5 million metric tons, representing an 84% decline compared to the same period last year.
Brazil is producing a record soybean crop and is nearing two-thirds completion of its harvest, while Argentina is just beginning its harvest. South American soybean prices remain at a discount to U.S. supplies, which is likely to delay demand for U.S. exports as China continues to source cheaper beans from the region.
Soybean conditions in Argentina improved to 38% rated good to excellent last week, according to the Buenos Aires Exchange, which maintained its production estimate at 48.5 million metric tons.

Wheat is trading lower at midday, pressured by ongoing concerns surrounding U.S. winter wheat conditions. Chicago May wheat is 6.6 cents lower at 6.01 ½ while Kansas City May wheat is 12.6 cents lower at 6.14 ½.
NOAA’s extended forecast indicates that dry conditions are expected to persist across Kansas, Nebraska, western Oklahoma, and the Texas Panhandle. Meanwhile, Thursday’s U.S. Drought Monitor showed that 55% of the winter wheat crop remains impacted by some level of drought.
SovEcon raised its estimate for Russian wheat production by 1.7 million metric tons, bringing the total to 87.5 million metric tons.
U.S. wheat exports, despite being among the most expensive globally, are running 14% above last year’s pace.

Lauren VandenLangenberg