TFM Midday Update 03-21-2022


  • May corn up 20 @ 7.62
  • War premium is being put back into the market as Ukraine cities continue to be shelled by Russian troops
  • Ukraine’s Ag Minister has recommended less corn to be planted and more cereals in order to meet food needs
  • Crude oil is higher again today
  • Brazil got rains over the weekend and southern Brazil has more chances through this week but Argentina will remain dry


  • May soybeans up 33 @ 17.01
  • Higher meal and oil are supportive to beans
  • Concern about tightening crude oil supplies due to the Russian ban could be supportive to biofuels and soybean oil
  • There is concern about China’s economy with talk that they may already be in a recession
  • Missiles from Yemen hit a Saudi Arabian oil refinery – damage is reported to be limited but this was supportive to crude nonetheless


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  • May wheat up 77 @ 11.41, May KC up 66 @ 11.36, May MNPLS up 47 @ 11.07
  • There is much concern about Ukrainian farmers being able to harvest their winter wheat
  • It is likely that given the bans on exports, Ukraine will not export wheat in 2022
  • Drought is still a concern in the US southern plains but that region could see rains over the next 10-15 days
  • Ukraine refused a surrender of Mariupol (an important port city)


  • Apr LC down 0.175 @ 140.325 & Apr FC down 1.650 @ 160.675
  • Futures closed higher last week after supportive steady to higher cash trade
  • Inflation of food and energy prices could impact overall beef demand
  • Choice cuts up 1.11 and select down 0.03
  • Cattle slaughter projected at 124K
  • CME Feeder Cattle Index for 3/18: up 0.62 @ 154.85


  • Apr hogs up 2.275 @ 101.675 & Apr pork cutout up 1.975 @ 107.975
  • Pork demand is also a concern due to higher energy and food prices
  • Packers may be aggressive in paying higher prices to start the week
  • National Direct Afternoon report declined 3.12
  • Hog slaughter projected at 473K
  • CME Lean Hog Index for 3/21: 0.59 @ 101.36


Brandon Doherty

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