TFM Midday Update 03-21-2025

CORN

  • Corn prices dip at midday as traders monitor potential tariff policy changes and await the release of the USDA’s Prospective Plantings Report on March 31st.
  • Brazilian corn prices continue to climb, fueling ongoing rumors that Brazil may be purchasing U.S. corn. While the rising prices make this possibility more plausible, there has been no official confirmation yet.
  • The Buenos Aries Grain Exchange said Argentine harvest is 13.6% complete. The weather is expected to be dry for a couple more days, than rains are expected which could delay harvest.
  • The U.S. corn area continues to be under drought, but the drought monitor dropped 2% down to 53%, which is still up compared to 34% a year ago. Although some precipitation is expected across the eastern Corn Belt, the western part is still expected to be dry.

SOYBEANS

  • Soybean prices remain under pressure at midday as traders digest yesterday’s disappointing export sales report and the ongoing uncertainty surrounding tariffs. While soybean meal is seeing some gains, soybeans and soybean oil continue to trade lower.
  • The Buenos Aries Grain Exchange raised the Argentine soybean conditions to 29% good to excellent, up from 24% last week and 31% at this time last year. They also lowered the Argentine production number by 1 million tons to 48.6 million.
  • The Mato Grosso soybean harvest is now 97% complete compared to the 93% average at this time.
  • With U.S. tariffs still in place, China is expected to source soybeans exclusively from Brazil. However, Brazil’s exportable soybean supply may be depleted by late summer, which could create an opportunity for U.S. soybean exports to fill the gap.
  • U.S. soybean areas under drought dropped by 4% last week to 42%, compared to 30% a year ago.

WHEAT

  • Wheat turns mixed at midday, supported by tightening global supplies and ongoing concerns about potential weather-related damage to the winter wheat crop in the U.S.
  • Weather concerns continue over the health of the HRW crop in the U.S. Plains, as dryness is expected to persist for the next two weeks. The portion of the U.S. winter wheat area affected by drought increased by 7% last week, now reaching 34%, compared to 17% at this time last year.
  • Wheat prices continue to face pressure following yesterday’s export sales report, which showed negative old crop exports due to cancellations.
  • The International Grains Council lowered global wheat stocks to 259 million tons, down from 265 last month.

Author

Lauren VandenLangenberg

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