TFM Midday Update 03-27-2024

The CME and Total Farm Marketing Offices will be Closed Friday, March 29, 2024, in Observance of Good Friday

CORN

The average pre-report estimate for corn acreage in tomorrow’s USDA report is 92.0 million, which compares to 94.6 ma last year. Quarterly stocks are expected to come in at 8.439 bb, up from 7.396 bb a year ago.
Concerns persist regarding avian flu in the cattle herd, potentially impacting grain markets. Despite reassurances from the USDA regarding human safety, traders may be apprehensive about a potential decrease in feed demand.
Recent rains in the western Corn Belt and Midwest are expected to replenish soil moisture levels, although they may also lead to delays in spring planting.
According to CONAB, Brazil’s safrinha corn crop is now 97% planted, which is above the pace from last year in which they were 91% planted at this time.

The average pre-report estimate for soybean acreage in tomorrow’s USDA report is 86.3 million, which compares to 83.6 ma last year. Quarterly stocks are expected to come in at 1.832 bb, up from 1.687 bb a year ago.
Despite the decline from last week’s high, May soybean futures are still trading above the 21, 40, and 50-day moving averages.
Soybean oil is under pressure this morning, likely due to lower palm oil futures that are seeing profit taking after the recent rally.
According to CONAB, Brazil’s soybean harvest is just over 66% complete as of the end of last week. And they should be well over 70% done by the end of this week.

The average pre-report estimate for all wheat acreage tomorrow is 47.7 million, which compares to 49.6 ma last year. Quarterly stocks are expected to come in at 1.053 bb, up from 941 mb a year ago.
This morning, Matif wheat is near unchanged at the time of writing; if it closes lower that would be the third consecutive session down.
Approximately 400,000 metric tons of wheat are reportedly stranded in Russian ports, attributed to the failure to obtain the necessary phytosanitary certificates from the government by RIF, the second-largest grain exporter in Russia.
During the month of March, Ukraine has exported 4.5 mmt of grain so far. By comparison, in March of last year they shipped 4.6 mmt. It should be noted that this year they are doing so without the aid of the Black Sea Grain Initiative, which ended in July of 2023.

Brandon Doherty