TFM Midday Update 03-28-2024

The CME and Total Farm Marketing Offices will be Closed Friday, March 29, 2024, in Observance of Good Friday

CORN

The USDA reported an increase of 47.5 mb of corn export sales for 23/24 and an increase of 5.0 mb for 24/25. Shipments last week totaling 48.6 mb were above the 45.3 mb pace needed per week to reach the export goal of 2.1 bb. In addition, total corn commitments of 1.689 bb are up 19% from last year.
Ethanol production is running ahead of the USDA’s estimated pace, at 1.054 million barrels per day. That is higher than last week and also above estimates.
Ocean surface temperatures suggest that the world could see a La Nina weather pattern as early as July, with it strengthening into late summer and fall. This could mean a warmer and drier summer in the US.
Brazilian states Mato Grosso and Goias are expected to receive 2-4 inches of rain over the next 10 days or so. However, Parana is still too dry. Additionally, dryness in Argentina should help the corn harvest pace pick up, which was 5.7% complete as of Wednesday.

The USDA reported an increase of 9.7 mb of soybean export sales for 23/24 and an increase of 4.4 mb for 24/25. Shipments totaled 28.9 mb last week and were above the 15.4 mb pace needed to reach the export goal of 1.72 bb. Total soybean commitments for this year are down 19% from last year at 1.483 bb.
Soybean basis levels at the Paranagua port in Brazil are over 60 cents per bushel higher than a year ago, indicating that perhaps their production is less than estimated, or demand is stronger.
At the time of writing, both soybean meal and oil are lower, offering weakness to soybean futures.
Agroconsult increased their estimate of Brazilian soybean production by 4.3 mmt to 156.5 mmt, which is above the current USDA and CONAB estimates.

The USDA reported an increase of 12.5 mb in wheat export sales for 23/24 and an increase of 7.8 mb for 24/25. Shipments last week totaled 15.0 mb and were below the 18.2 mb pace needed to reach the export goal of 710 mb. This year’s total wheat commitments are up 4% from last year at 688 mb.
Paris milling wheat futures are modestly higher as of writing, which should offer some support to the US market.
The Saudi Arabian government is tendering for 595,000 mt of wheat. Their last tender in 2023 resulted in a purchase of 1.35 mmt of wheat.
The US Dollar Index made a new near-term high today; as it moves higher, that makes it more expensive for importers to buy US ag goods, which may add upside resistance to futures.

Brandon Doherty