TFM Midday Update 03-29-2023

CORN

May corn up 3 @ 6.50
Corn is trading higher today as flash sales nearly every day for the past two weeks from China help keep prices supported
Private exporters reported sales of another 204,000 mt of corn for delivery to China during the 22/23 marketing year
Friday’s Acreage report may be a catalyst for volatility in corn, and some recent estimates are calling for 92.5 million acres of corn, higher than the average guess of 91
Corn is likely getting some support from wheat which is higher amid uncertainty in the Black Sea region

May soybeans up 9 @ 14.77
Soybeans are trading higher today with gains in bean meal as world veg oils work higher but meal is trading slightly lower
Friday’s Acreage report will give better insight into potential production, but now some analysts are expecting just 84.5 million acres of beans planted instead of 87.5
Crude oil is higher again today and has rallied significantly from its lows, which has supported bean oil as well
Last week’s export inspections were 32.7 mb, bringing total inspections to 1652 mb, up 3% from the previous year

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May Chi wheat up 8 @ 7.07, May KC up 6 @ 8.79, & May MNPLS up 2 @ 8.84
Wheat is trading higher, but has backed off its highs from earlier this morning
Uncertainty in the Black Sea region and whether or not that deal will be extended is helping support global wheat prices
There is talk that Russia may begin restricting wheat exports to fill their reserves, which would be supportive for futures
Crop ratings for HRW wheat in the southwestern Plains have fallen with Texas at 18% good to excellent and the poor to very poor rating at 48% due to drought

Apr LC up 0.525 @ 165.475 & Apr FC up 0.750 @ 197.975
Both live and feeder cattle are higher today as higher cash is expected this week and feeder futures work to narrow the premium between the cash market
With boxed beef trending higher, packers may be more inclined to pay up for cash which gives trade more confidence to own cattle
Choice cuts up 0.27 and select up 0.64
Cattle slaughter projected at 126K
CME Feeder Cattle Index for 3/28: up 0.10 @ 191.34

Apr hogs down 0.325 @ 77.425 & Apr pork cutout down 0.350 @ 82.225
Hogs are trading lower again today after a decline in cash and a drop in the cutout of 1.22 is causing traders to avoid buying hogs
The average trade estimate for all hogs and pigs on March 1 is 100.3% of last year, kept for breeding is at 100.6%, and marketing at 100.3%
National Direct Afternoon report declined 0.20
Hog slaughter projected at 484K
CME Lean Hog Index for 3/29: down 0.32 @ 76.25

Amanda Brill