TFM Midday Update 04-03-2023

CORN

May corn up 1 @ 6.61
Private exporters reported sales of 150,000 mt of corn for delivery to Mexico during the 23/24 marketing year
Crude oil is up sharply after OPEC announced an unexpected cut in production of 1.2 million barrels per day
The USDA is estimating corn planting at 92 million acres – this is bearish if true
More snow expected in the northern plains may lead to delays in spring fieldwork, alongside potential flooding with warming next week

May soybeans up 13 @ 15.19
Private exporters reported sales of 20,000 mt of soybean oil for delivery to unknown during the 22/23 marketing year
Some news outlets suggest that China will invest in Malaysian palm oil production in order to secure supplies down the road
Friday’s reports showed lower-than-expected stocks and lower-than-expected acres
Argentina will have a new soy/peso program to encourage farmers there to sell soybeans

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May Chi wheat up 8 @ 7.00, May KC up 9 @ 8.87, & May MNPLS up 9 @ 9.05
Continued snow and cold weather in northern areas may delay spring wheat planting
This afternoon the market will get the first Crop Progress report, which could highlight the drought issues in the US southern plains
Spring wheat acres on Friday’s report were estimated at 10.57 million which is the lowest since 1972
Wheat conditions in Europe are mostly favorable with French and UK wheat good to excellent ratings said to be above 90%

Apr LC down 0.225 @ 168.125 & Apr FC down 2.500 @ 198.325
Southern live cattle traded $4 higher and northern was $6 higher
Higher corn this morning may be weighing on feeder cattle futures
Another winter storm with heavy snow will move through much of cattle country this week
Live cattle futures may be considered technically overbought and due for a correction
Choice cuts up 2.87 and select up 2.26
Cattle slaughter projected at 127K
CME Feeder Cattle Index for 3/31: up 0.99 @ 193.34

Apr hogs down 0.175 @ 75.075 & Apr pork cutout UNCH @ 80.800
Last week’s Hogs & Pigs report was mostly neutral and not offering much help to futures
Higher beef prices may mean more consumers turn to pork
Funds are said to have increased their net short position to a record 27,907 contracts
Lower cash and cutouts on Friday were unsupportive
National Direct Afternoon report declined 4.05
Hog slaughter projected at 485K
CME Lean Hog Index for 4/3: down 0.31 @ 75.46

Brandon Doherty