TFM Midday Update 04-06-2022

CORN

  • May corn down 7 @ 7.53
  • The US and EU are expected to announce a new set of sanctions against Russia today
  • The safrinha corn in southern Brazil is expected to get beneficial rain over the next 7 days (with lighter amounts in Argentina and central Brazil)
  • CONAB will release an update tomorrow with their Brazil production numbers
  • The eastern Midwest is forecasted to remain wet for most of April which could delay plantings

SOYBEANS

  • May soybeans down 7 @ 16.24
  • Private exporters reported sales of 132,000 mt of soybeans for delivery to China during the 21/22 marketing year
  • Covid cases are reportedly rising in China, causing concern about their import demand
  • There are no FOB offers out of Brazil after August which may make the US the main exporter this fall
  • May soybeans on China’s Dalian Exchange are around the equivalent of $21.24 per bushel

 

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WHEAT

  • May wheat down 10 @ 10.35, May KC down 5 @ 10.78, May MNPLS down 9 @ 11.03
  • There is increased concern about the rebuilding of Russian troops in eastern Ukraine, and those troops heading south to export points
  • US wheat exports have been lagging but could pick up down the road if the war continues
  • The European weather model suggests June – August will be dry in the western Corn Belt and the Plains
  • The Climate Prediction Center suggests that drought in the HRW region will continue at least through June

CATTLE

  • Apr LC up 0.700 @ 137.500 & Apr FC up 0.525 @ 156.650
  • Steady cash yesterday
  • Feedlots may not want to hold out for higher prices due to rising feed costs
  • Both live and feeder cattle futures are at or near oversold levels
  • Choice cuts up 3.49 and select up 1.20
  • Cattle slaughter projected at 125K
  • CME Feeder Cattle Index for 4/5: down 0.39 @ 155.76

HOGS

  • Apr hogs up 0.425 @ 98.100 & Apr pork cutout up 0.150 @ 105.00
  • Lack of support from cash or cutouts yesterday
  • Packers may be less aggressive as they have been able to purchase hogs at lower prices
  • Hog futures are at or near oversold levels
  • National Direct Afternoon report declined 1.38
  • Hog slaughter projected at 469K
  • CME Lean Hog Index for 4/6: down 0.75 @ 101.66

Author

Brandon Doherty

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