TFM Midday Update 04-11-2022


  • May corn up 3 @ 7.72
  • Private exporters reported sales of 1.02 mmt of corn for delivery to China (680,000 for delivery during the 21/22 marketing year and 340,000 during 22/23)
  • Argentina’s corn production could be further reduced (the WASDE report left it unchanged at 53 mmt)
  • December corn is at contract highs
  • Cool and wet weather is forecasted to move across the eastern Corn Belt
  • The USDA’s estimate of Ukraine corn exports is likely still too high despite lowering it by 4.5 mmt (to 23 mmt)


  • May soybeans down 27 @ 16.62
  • The USDA did lower soybean carryout, but some analysts think it could be even smaller
  • Argentina’s soybean production was unchanged at 43.5 mmt on the WASDE report, despite expectations for it to be lowered
  • Soybeans are being pressured by lower soybean oil and lower crude oil
  • The WASDE report showed a decline in Chinese soy imports by 3 mmt


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  • May wheat up 38 @ 10.89, May KC up 48 @ 11.55, May MNPLS up 28 @ 11.55
  • Many Middle Eastern and North African wheat buyers have switched to buying new crop instead of old crop, hoping for lower prices
  • Russian artillery attacked Odessa over the weekend and they are amassing troops in the east
  • Global ending stocks for wheat are at a five year low (278.4 mmt)
  • Russia is shipping wheat but did raise its export tax to $101.40 per metric ton (from $96.10)
  • New crop Paris milling wheat futures are at contract highs


  • Jun LC down 0.175 @ 133.65 & May FC down 1.450 @ 157.925
  • Cash was steady last week, but not expected to hold this week
  • Markets closed Friday and packers have some contracted ahead
  • USDA increased their estimate of beef production by 140 million pounds on the WASDE report
  • Choice cuts down 0.93 and select down 0.89
  • Cattle slaughter projected at 123K
  • CME Feeder Cattle Index for 4/8: up 0.42 @ 156.01


  • Jun hogs down 0.350 @ 114.225 & Jun pork cutout unchanged @ 121.625
  • USDA decreased their pork production estimate by 240 million pounds on the WASDE report
  • Futures may be building support
  • Deferred contracts have gaps above the market which may need to be filled eventually
  • National Direct Afternoon report declined 2.57
  • Hog slaughter projected at 476K
  • CME Lean Hog Index for 4/11: down 0.62 @ 100.06


Brandon Doherty

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