TFM Midday Update 04-12-2022


  • May corn up 11 @ 7.75
  • Weekly corn inspections at 55.9 mb with total inspections now at 1.260 bb
  • 2% of the U.S. corn crop is planted (vs 3% average and 4% at this time last year)
  • Dec corn has again made a new high
  • The Biden administration may allow a higher ethanol blend in the summer, which is supportive to corn
  • China has purchased 83 mb of U.S. corn in the past 2 weeks, with rumors that they will purchase 1-2 mmt more
  • Ukraine’s grain traders’ union said their corn harvest may be only 23.1 mmt (vs 37.6 mmt last year)


  • May soybeans up 15 @ 16.70
  • Weekly soybean inspections at 28.2 mb with total inspections now at 1.651 bb
  • Strong soybean oil market is supportive to soybeans
  • Higher crude oil is supportive as well, with expectations for more biodiesel demand
  • Lockdowns in China have impacted U.S. soy exports, but they may be starting to ease some covid restrictions
  • Inflation data out today is expected to show an increase, which could affect ag markets


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  • May wheat up 15 @ 10.96, May KC up 16 @ 11.58, May MNPLS up 13 @ 11.55
  • Weekly wheat inspections at 15.1 mb with total inspections now at 648 mb
  • Winter wheat conditions up 2% to 32% good to excellent (vs 53% at this time last year)
  • U.S. spring wheat is 6% planted (vs 5% average and 10% at this time last year)
  • Ukraine is accusing Russia of using chemicals as they continue their offensive
  • Egypt is tendering for wheat, but only from European sources
  • Ukraine’s grain traders’ union is estimating a wheat crop of 18.2 mmt (vs 30.3 mmt last year)


  • Jun LC up 0.900 @ 135.700 & May FC up 1.500 @ 161.400
  • Yesterday’s rebound on feeder cattle was a positive sign and could encourage traders to buy into the market
  • Rising corn prices may put pressure on cattle futures
  • A large storm across cattle country may hinder movement
  • Choice cuts up 1.64 and select down 0.04
  • Cattle slaughter projected at 125K
  • CME Feeder Cattle Index for 4/11: down 0.34 @ 155.67


  • Jun hogs up 2.700 @ 117.725 & Jun pork cutout up 2.425 @ 124.425
  • Packers may need to be more aggressive as pork demand increases
  • Futures may be building support with a relatively sideways trading pattern
  • There are still gaps above the market on some deferred contracts
  • National Direct Afternoon report declined 0.03
  • Hog slaughter projected at 476K
  • CME Lean Hog Index for 4/12: down 0.43 @ 99.63


Brandon Doherty

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