TFM Midday Update 04-17-2024

CORN

Corn is trading mostly lower at midday in a very quiet trade that has remained rangebound over the past six weeks. Rain has also begun to fall today across the northern Midwest and the northern Plains in some of the driest areas that need it the most.
In South America, Brazil’s second (safrinha) crop corn growing season is well under way but is facing a dry forecast. It may be three days before Argentina receives rain, but Brazil has a longer timeline for dry weather. Argentina is expected to produce 55 mmt of corn and Brazil is expected to produce 124 mmt.
US ethanol production is expected to be lower at 1.035m b/d for last week which would compare to 1.056 the previous week. The stockpile average estimate is seen at 26.146m bbl which would compare to 26.208m the week prior.

Soybeans are trading higher today but have been on a steady decline since the recent high on March 21. Prices in the July contract have fallen 76 cents from that high and are now just 25 cents off of the February low. Both soybean meal and oil are trading higher today as well.
Monday’s NOPA crush report was friendly on the crush side with 196.406 million bushels crushed for the month of March which indicates good domestic demand, but the soybean oil stocks that came in higher than expected were bearish.
Brazilian soybean exports are expected to reach 13.74 mmt for the month of April which compares with 12.73 mmt the previous month. For 23/24, Brazilian soybean sales are expected to reach 41.6% of expected production.

Wheat is mostly lower at midday with Chicago and KC wheat trading lower while Minneapolis wheat is mixed. Wheat is following the trend in corn and has been trading sideways over the past month. Today’s rains have avoided winter wheat areas, but the 8 to 14-day forecast has chances for rain.
According to Monday’s crop progress report, 11% of the winter wheat crop is headed, which is above the 5-year average of 7% for this time of year. 55% is rated good to excellent, which is much better than last year’s 27%.
In Russia, the weather is forecast to warm over its wheat growing season and production estimates have increased. LSEG Commodities has forecast the 24/25 wheat production to total 89.8 mmt which would be up 1.6% from their last update.

Amanda Brill