TFM Midday Update 04-19-2024

CORN

Corn is trading higher near midday but is slightly off its highs from overnight which were caused by Israel’s attacks on Iran. July futures are at the lower end of their recent range and are about 22 cents above their low that was posted at the end of February.
There are rumors circulating this morning that the Environmental Protection Agency may be about to approve the sales of E15 over the summer which could boost ethanol demand and support corn prices.
In Argentina, the corn crop is reportedly shrinking due to an invasion of “leaf hopper” insects that carry a disease that damages corn. It is estimated that $1.3 billion has been lost from the value of the 23/24 crop due to this disease.

Soybeans are trading higher today and are just a few cents off their overnight highs. Israel’s attack on Iran caused crude oil futures to spike sharply higher but they have faded this morning and are now near unchanged. July futures are about 18 cents off of the February low, which could be an area of support.
Soybean meal is trading higher today but has been virtually rangebound over the past month, while soybean oil is near unchanged and has sold off considerably along with the correction lower in palm oil prices. Despite the selloff, crush margins are still profitable enough to incentivize processors, which was reflected in Monday’s record NOPA report.
In the past three weeks, the Brazilian Real has fallen by 4.6% which cheapens soybean purchases from Brazil. As a result, May soybean futures in the US have fallen about 54 cents in the same time frame which is a decline of about 4.5%.

Wheat is trading higher overall today with Chicago leading the way up, Minneapolis trailing behind, and KC wheat is mixed to slightly higher. Prices are well off the overnight highs caused by the escalations in the Middle East.
In the US, rains are forecast to fall in both Oklahoma and Texas tomorrow, but the 6 to 14-day forecast calls for much wider spread moisture across the country. The extended forecast should be favorable for spring wheat planting along with the winter wheat growing season.
Yesterday’s export sales reports were poor again with net cancellations of 3.4 mb reported for the 23/24 year, but new crop sales of 8.2 mb were better than expected.

Amanda Brill