TFM Midday Update 04-20-2023

CORN

May corn down 7 @ 6.65
Corn is trading lower again today largely influenced by negative outside markets, but the news that Poland and Romania have agreed to allow Ukrainian grains to be imported have been bearish as well.
The EIA reported on its weekly petroleum status that ethanol production rose by 7% last week as margins improved.
Export sales for corn were poor at 312,000 mt for 22/23 and were down 41% from the previous week and 79% from the prior 4-week average.
For the 23/24 marketing year, net sales of 422,000 mt were reported, and exports were 1,298,500 mt and were up 42% from the previous week.

May soybeans down 10 @ 14.96
Soybeans are trading lower again today being pulled lower by soybean meal and soybean oil, but poor export sales were a bearish factor as in corn.
Soybean oil is being pressured by a decline in the crude oil market by nearly 2 dollars a barrel bringing the May contract down to the 77-dollar level.
Net sales for soybeans were not supportive at just 100,100 mt for 22/23 and were down 73% from the previous week and 58% from the prior 4-week average.
Net sales for the 23/24 marketing year were 2,900 mt, and exports of 582,800 mt were down 15% from the previous week and 20% from the prior 4-week average.

May Chi wheat down 11 @ 6.71, May KC down 19 @ 8.42, & May MNPLS down 10 @ 8.60
Wheat is lower this morning led by KC wheat after Paris milling wheat gapped lower overnight and are near the lows.
Ukraine has been allowed to resume their vessel inspections by Russia which was halted over the past few days.
There were two tenders in wheat where Jordan bought only 50,000 mt of a 120,000 mt tender, and Japan is seeking 66,377 mt of Australian and US wheat.
Net sales of wheat were 259,000 mt for 22/23 and were up 91% from the previous week and 93% from the prior 4-week average, and exports of 202,800 mt were down 28% from the previous week.

Jun LC down 0.725 @ 162.875 & May FC down 0.950 @ 209.550
Both live and feeder cattle are lower today as cash trade has started to develop steady to slightly lower.
Some trade in Nebraska has taken place at 288 which is 2 dollars below last week’s weighted average while some deals in Kansas were a dollar below last week
Cattle on feed estimates are 94.8% for on feed, 95.2% for placements, and 98.9% for marketed.
Choice cuts down 1.14 and select down 0.15.
Cattle slaughter projected at 126K
CME Feeder Cattle Index for 4/19: down 0.14 @ 206.23

May hogs down 1.225 @ 77.550 & May pork cutout UNCH @ 85.025
Hogs continue to trade lower as lower cash and cutouts offer no support with cutouts falling 2.12 and pulled lower by a decline in bellies of 9.19
There is some anticipation that pork consumption will increase as the summer grilling season picks up.
Some demand may shift from beef to pork due to price.
National Direct Afternoon report declined 0.31.
Hog slaughter projected at 482K
CME Lean Hog Index for 4/20: down 0.07 @ 71.57

Brandon Doherty