TFM Midday Update 04-27-2022

CORN

May corn up 10 @ 8.13
There is concern about a specific bridge in western Ukraine being destroyed because it has a lot of movement of grain, as well as military aid from the West
Some of the US weather forecasts have changed a bit overnight with chances for rain next week in the western Corn Belt
Russia has reportedly cut off gas to Poland, possibly escalating the conflict
The 7 day forecast for central Brazil remains dry
Argentina’s corn harvest is reported to be 23% complete

May soybeans up 5 @ 17.10
Stats Canada lowered their canola acreage estimate and Matif rapeseed new crop contract was making new highs – this may offer some support to soybean oil
Crush margins are very strong which helps demand for soybeans
Soybean meal stocks in China are down 50% from last year, though covid lockdowns could be reducing food demand
USDA may lower Chinese soybean imports on the May 12^th report as the pace is currently running behind what is needed to reach their estimate

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May wheat down 11 @ 10.72, May KC down 13 @ 11.45, & May MNPLS up 3 @ 11.89
Russians are pushing to take over export facilities in the Black Sea
Stats Canada came out with higher wheat acreage estimate yesterday
Chances for rain early next week in the Texas panhandle and Oklahoma – the moisture is welcomed but probably will not change HRW yields much
Flooding is a concern in the eastern part of North Dakota
US Dollar Index is at 19 year highs which may pressure the wheat market

Jun LC down 1.425 @ 134.825 & May FC down 1.050 @ 159.675
Cash was steady to higher early this week
More market ready cattle expected to become available over the next couple months
Today there will be a hearing by the House Ag Committee regarding transparency and alleged unfair practices in cattle markets
Choice cuts down 2.43 and select down 0.29
Cattle slaughter projected at 125K
CME Feeder Cattle Index for 4/26: down 0.40 @ 156.12

Jun hogs down 0.525 @ 110.650 & Jun pork cutout down 0.200 @ 117.300
Hog futures continued liquidation yesterday
A large head and shoulders chart pattern potentially points to the downside
Futures are near technical support levels and traders may view the recent liquidation as a buying opportunity
National Direct Afternoon report increased 3.26
Hog slaughter projected at 480K
CME Lean Hog Index for 4/27: up 0.39 @ 102.89

Brandon Doherty