TFM Midday Update 04-28-2023

CORN

Corn is trading lower for the third consecutive day and the July contract has lost approximately 71 cents from last week’s high following the Chinese sales cancellations.
Total cancellations by China this week were 21 mb, and yesterday’s export sales were disappointing at just 15.7 mb with total sales commitments down 33% from a year ago.
There were no deliveries against the May contract, and open interest fell by 13,000 contracts yesterday as funds build a net short position.
In order for the Black Sea agreement to be renewed, Russia is asking for terms that will likely not be met, so the deal may expire which could be bullish for corn and wheat.

Soybeans have been trading either side of unchanged today but are currently slightly lower. There is support from higher soybean oil as crude oil rises, while soybean meal is lower.
There were 199 deliveries against May soybean oil but no deliveries against soybeans or soybean meal.
Malaysian palm oil futures fell by 2.95% on Friday and are down nearly 11% for the month of April due to poor exports and a large Indonesian supply.
The Argentinian soybean crop is just over 28% harvested with new production estimates between 20 and 23 mmt which compares to last week’s harvest of 43.5 mmt.

Wheat is trading mixed today with Chicago and KC wheat lower but Minneapolis wheat slightly higher. If the trend lower continues, July wheat would be on track for an eighth consecutively lower close.
On a friendlier note, soft red winter wheat US FOB prices are now cheaper than the offers from Russia after Russia established a price floor at $275 per ton.
There was a total of 854 contracts delivered against the May Chicago wheat contract yesterday but no deliveries for KC or Minn wheat.
Paris milling wheat futures hit a new low today and have fallen 6 out of the past 8 trading days as French soft wheat is now rated at 94% good-to-excellent which is the best rating since 2011.

Amanda Brill