TFM Midday Update 05-01-2024

CORN

Corn is trading lower today with the July contract now below its level of support that has been in place over the past week. This would be the fourth consecutively lower day of trade, and December corn is now below its 20-day moving average. There have been only 3 deliveries against the May contract since First Notice Day on Monday.
Planting delays in the US are still expected as the central and southern Plains are forecast to receive rains today with more storms expected in the country throughout the rest of the week. Delays due to excess rains could last until May 18.
In Brazil, the primary growing state of Mato Grosso is hot and dry which could cause a reduction in total production. The Argentine corn crop is also in jeopardy of being reduced by 1 mmt to 49 mmt due to the disease being spread by leaf hopper bugs.

Soybeans are trading slightly higher today with some support from soybean oil after two sharply lower trading sessions. Soybean meal is trading lower as Argentina’s worker strike has ended and their ongoing soybean harvest, which is expected to be more than twice as large as last year’s, will flood the market with bean meal.
Later today, the Census Crush numbers will be released for March, and they are expected to show total crush at 205 million bushels which would compare to 193.9 mb the previous month. Soybean oil stocks are expected to increase to 2.350 billion pounds from 2.146 billion in February.
The USDA will release its Supply and Demand report next Friday, and a wide discrepancy of 8 mmt remains in place between CONAB’s estimate for Brazilian soybean production and the USDA’s estimate with CONAB guessing lower. It is possible that the USDA will lower this number slightly next week.

All three wheat classes are trading lower today with KC wheat leading the complex lower followed by losses in Chicago wheat. July KC wheat has fallen 34 cents from its Monday high as producers and speculative sellers were quick to take advantage of the rally that was likely caused by worry over the size of Russia’s wheat crop.
Russian and Ukrainian FOB values are the cheapest available, but the recent dry weather has caused concern for Russia’s 24/25 crop size. Russia still has a large amount of old crop supplies which should keep their values cheap.
Australian wheat production is expected to come in around 26 mmt for 24/25 which is a slightly higher projection than last month’s at 25.8 mmt. This number would also be 3% lower than the 10-year moving average, and exports are expected to decline as well.

Amanda Brill