TFM Midday Update 05-01-2026

CORN

  • Corn continues to trade higher at midday, as underlying bullish fundamentals support the rally despite a drop in crude oil prices. May corn is up 3-1/4 cents at 4.68.
  • Argentina’s corn harvest is 28% complete, with the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange maintaining its production estimate at 61 million tons—well above the USDA forecast of 52 million. Crop stress in parts of Brazil’s safrinha growing areas may offset the impact of larger Argentine production.
  • The USDA confirmed the sale of 148,240 metric tons of U.S. corn to unknown destinations, with 78,240 tons for 2025/26 delivery and 70,000 tons for 2026/27.
  • The 6–15 day outlook in the U.S. calls for below-normal precipitation across the Midwest and Northern Plains, which should help accelerate planting progress.

SOYBEANS

  • Soybeans are higher during the midday session. May soybeans are up 3-3/4 cents to 11.85-3/4. The entire soybean complex is posting gains at midday.
  • Argentina’s harvest is now 18.3% complete, while Brazil’s harvest is essentially finished.
  • Canada’s canola crush for March rose 15.3% from February and was up 7.1% year over year. In the U.S., crush profit margins remain extremely strong, though processors are facing record-high maintenance downtime this month, which could further tighten cash meal supplies.
  • Thursday’s EIA report showed soybean oil used for biofuel rose more than 8% in February from the prior month. Biofuel production also increased sharply year over year, reaching its highest level in seven years. The data was broadly bullish for bean oil, which has also been supported by gains in crude oil.

WHEAT

  • Wheat is mixed at midday, recovering modestly from Thursday’s losses following larger-than-expected deliveries and recent showers across Colorado and western Kansas. May Chicago wheat is 3-1/2 cents lower at 6.20-1/4 while May Kansas City wheat is up 5 cents at 6.83.
  • The Plains forecast over the next week remains largely unchanged, with minimal precipitation expected outside of central Texas and eastern Colorado. U.S. winter wheat under drought declined 1% this week to 69%, still well above last year’s 23%.
  • The EU Commission raised EU common wheat ending stocks for 2026/27 to 14.6 million tons, up 0.9 million from last month, and increased exports by 1.4 million tons to 45.2 million.
  • Russia has set their wheat export tax at zero for next week.

Author

Lauren VandenLangenberg

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